Pengendalian Emisi Karbon Dioksida dari Sektor Transportasi Terhadap Pemanasan Global

Syamimi, Intan (2026) Pengendalian Emisi Karbon Dioksida dari Sektor Transportasi Terhadap Pemanasan Global. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pemanasan global merupakan salah satu permasalahan lingkungan global yang ditandai oleh peningkatan suhu rata-rata bumi akibat akumulasi gas rumah kaca di atmosfer, yang didominasi oleh karbon dioksida (CO2). Salah satu sektor penyumbang utama emisi CO2 adalah sektor transportasi akibat tingginya ketergantungan mobilitas masyarakat terhadap kendaraan berbahan bakar fosil. Oleh karena itu, Tugas Akhir ini membahas model matematika emisi karbon dioksida dari sektor transportasi terhadap pemanasan global. Model matematika tersebut terdiri dari sistem persamaan diferensial nonlinier yang menggambarkan dinamika interaksi antara konsentrasi CO2 di atmosfer, populasi manusia, populasi kendaraan berbahan bakar fosil, pemanasan global, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Guna menekan laju emisi CO2 dari sektor transportasi, pada model diterapkan dua kontrol berupa kebijakan elektrifikasi kendaraan (u1) dan optimalisasi transportasi publik (u2). Berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan, diperoleh bahwa sistem bersifat stabil asimtotik di sekitar titik kesetimbangan koeksistensi. Selain itu, analisis keterkontrolan dan keteramatan menunjukkan bahwa sistem bersifat terkontrol dan teramati. Penyelesaian masalah kontrol optimal dilakukan menggunakan Prinsip Minimum Pontryagin dan simulasi numerik dengan metode Runge-Kutta orde empat. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dalam waktu 10 tahun, penerapan kontrol optimal dapat memperlambat laju peningkatan konsentrasi CO2 di atmosfer serta mengurangi populasi kendaraan berbahan bakar fosil. Meskipun demikian, dampak penerapan kontrol tersebut terhadap pemanasan global masih relatif kecil dan tidak menghambat pertumbuhan populasi manusia maupun pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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Global warming is a global environmental issue characterized by an increase in the Earth's average temperature due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2). One of the primary sectors contributing to CO2 emissions is the transportation sector, owing to society's high dependence on fossil-fueled vehicles for mobility. Therefore, this Final Project discusses a mathematical model of carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector and their impact on global warming. The mathematical model consists of a system of nonlinear differential equations that describe the dynamic interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, human population, fossil-fueled vehicle population, global warming, and economic growth. To reduce the rate of CO2 emissions from the transportation sector, two controls in the form of vehicle electrification policies (u1) and public transportation optimization (u2) are applied to the model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the system is asymptotically stable around the coexistence equilibrium point. Additionally, the controllability and observability analysis indicates that the system is both controllable and observable. The optimal control problem is solved using Pontryagin's Minimum Principle and numerical simulations using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The simulation results show that over a 10-year period, the implementation of optimal control can slow the rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration increase and reduce the population of fossil-fueled vehicles. Nevertheless, the impact of these controls on global warming remains relatively small and does not hinder human population or economic growth.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Pemanasan Global, Emisi Karbon, Transportasi, Kontrol Optimal, Prinsip Minimum Pontryagin, Global Warming, Carbon Emissions, Transportation, Optimal Control, Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle
Subjects:	Q Science Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA401 Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Intan Syamimi
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 01:29
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 01:29
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140775

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