Pasaribu, Ratna Dewi M. (2026) Modifikasi Model Difusi Adopsi Kendaraan Listrik Roda Dua di Indonesia Menggunakan Generalized Bass, Gompertz, dan Logistic dengan Shock Variable Incremental Net Present Value dan Segmentasi. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pemerintah Indonesia telah menerapkan berbagai kebijakan untuk meningkatkan adopsi kendaraan listrik roda dua (Electric Two-Wheeler/E2W), namun hingga tahun 2025 penjualannya baru mencapai 55.059 unit atau sekitar 0,86% dari total pasar sepeda motor nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model proyeksi adopsi E2W dengan mengintegrasikan Delta Net Present Value (ΔNPV) sebagai variabel eksternal ke dalam model Bass, Logistic, dan Gompertz berdasarkan kerangka Generalized Bass Model (GBM), serta mengevaluasi efektivitas berbagai skenario kebijakan. Nilai ΔNPV dihitung menggunakan pendekatan Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) pada tiga segmen pasar, yaitu low, mid, dan high. Enam varian model dibandingkan menggunakan indikator SSE, RMSE, MAD, dan MAPE, kemudian model terbaik digunakan untuk simulasi kebijakan hingga tahun 2040. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa integrasi ΔNPV meningkatkan akurasi seluruh model difusi, dengan Bass + ΔNPV sebagai model terbaik yang menghasilkan MAPE 23,74% atau meningkat 88,86% dibandingkan Bass standar. Simulasi menunjukkan bahwa subsidi pembelian merupakan kebijakan tunggal paling efektif, sedangkan Mix Maximum Push menghasilkan tingkat adopsi tertinggi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa integrasi faktor ekonomi mampu meningkatkan akurasi proyeksi sekaligus menjadi dasar yang lebih baik dalam mengevaluasi kebijakan percepatan adopsi E2W di Indonesia.
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The Indonesian government has introduced various policies to accelerate the adoption of Electric Two-Wheelers (E2Ws), yet sales reached only 55,059 units in 2025, representing approximately 0.86% of the national motorcycle market. This study develops an E2W adoption forecasting model by integrating Delta Net Present Value (ΔNPV) as an external variable into the Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz models within the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) framework and evaluates the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios. ΔNPV was calculated using a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach across three market segments: low, mid, and high. Six model variants were evaluated using SSE, RMSE, MAD, and MAPE, and the best-performing model was employed for policy simulations through 2040. The results show that integrating ΔNPV improves the accuracy of all diffusion models, with Bass + ΔNPV achieving the best performance (MAPE 23.74%), representing an 88.86% improvement over the conventional Bass model. Policy simulations indicate that purchase subsidies are the most effective single policy, while the Mix Maximum Push scenario produces the highest adoption level. These findings demonstrate that incorporating economic factors improves forecasting accuracy and provides a stronger basis for evaluating E2W adoption policies Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bass Diffusion Model, Electric Two-Wheeler, Net Present Value, Segmentasi Pasar, Total Cost of Ownership, Bass Diffusion Model, Electric Two-Wheeler, Market Segmentation, Net Present Value, Total Cost of Ownership |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Ratna Dewi M. Pasaribu |
| Date Deposited: | 31 Jul 2026 02:13 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2026 07:29 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140787 |
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