Pemodelan PDRB Sektor Industri Manufaktur Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Ekonometrika Spasial Data Panel

Setiawan, Calista Athaya Titis (2026) Pemodelan PDRB Sektor Industri Manufaktur Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Ekonometrika Spasial Data Panel. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

PDRB Sektor Industri Manufaktur merupakan indikator utama penggerak ekonomi yang secara konsisten mendominasi 30%-31% pembentukan PDRB di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi PDRB sektor tersebut di 38 kabupaten/kota se-Jawa Timur periode 2014-2024. Mengingat terbuktinya autokorelasi spasial yang positif dan signifikan, penelitian ini membandingkan Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) dan Spatial Error Model (SEM) dengan matriks pembobot queen contiguity dan customize melalui estimasi Pooled, Fixed Effect, serta Random Effect. Variabel independen yang diuji meliputi Tenaga Kerja Sektor Industri, TPT, TPAK, Upah Pekerja, Belanja Modal, PAD, Rasio Elektrifikasi, dan Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah (RLS). Model terbaik yang terpilih berdasarkan signifikansi parameter, kriteria kebaikan model, dan uji Hausman adalah model SAR Random Effect menggunakan matriks pembobot customize yang didasarkan pada pemberian bobot yang tidak hanya memperhatikan aspek geografis, namun juga keterkaitan ekonomi dan aglomerasi industri untuk wilayah-wilayah Gerbangkertosusila Plus. Model terbaik yang didapatkan ini melibatkan 4 variabel independen yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap peningkatan PDRB. Berdasarkan nilai elastisitasnya, variabel RLS memberikan dampak terbesar yaitu 0,6521, diikuti oleh Upah Pekerja Sektor Industri sebesar 0,1311, PAD sebesar 0,1053, dan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Industri sebesar 0,0841. Model ini juga mengindikasikan adanya dampak limpahan spasial positif antarwilayah dengan koefisien sebesar 0,3439.
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The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Manufacturing Industry Sector is a key economic driver indicator that consistently dominates 30%-31% of the GRDP formation in East Java Province. This study aims to model the factors influencing the GRDP of this sector across 38 regencies/cities in East Java for the 2014-2024 period. Given the proven positive and significant spatial autocorrelation, this research compares the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and the Spatial Error Model (SEM) using queen contiguity and customize spatial weight matrices through Pooled, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect estimations. The independent variables tested include Industrial Sector Labor, Open Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, Workers' Wages, Capital Expenditure, Locally-Generated Revenue, Electrification Ratio, and Mean Years of Schooling. Based on parameter significance, model goodness-of-fit criteria, and the Hausman test, the SAR Random Effect using a customize weight matrix was selected as the best model. This customized weighting is based not only on geographical aspects but also on economic linkages and industrial agglomeration for the Gerbangkertosusila Plus regions. This optimal model involves four independent variables that have a positive and significant effect on the GRDP increase. Based on the elasticity values, the RLS variable provides the largest impact at 0.6521, followed by Industrial Sector Workers' Wages at 0.1311, PAD at 0.1053, and Industrial Sector Labor at 0.0841. This model also indicates the existence of a positive spatial spillover effect between regions with a coefficient of 0.3439.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Matriks Pembobot Spasial Customize, Panel Spasial, PDRB Industri Manufaktur, SAR, SEM, Customized Spatial Weight Matrix, Manufacturing Industry GRDP, SAR, SEM, Spatial Panel
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Calista Athaya Titis Setiawan
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 07:18
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 07:18
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/140884

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