Yahya, Adinda (2026) Perancangan Kebijakan Persediaan Komponen Darah Whole Blood dan Implikasinya terhadap Biaya Persediaan Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo di UTD PMI Kota Surabaya. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Ketersediaan darah merupakan aspek esensial dalam pelayanan kesehatan di bidang pelayanan darah, termasuk bagian pelayanan darah di Kota Surabaya oleh Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) Kota Surabaya. Kebutuhan darah di Kota Surabaya per harinya mencapai 250 – 300 kantong, namun adakalanya persediaan darah tidak mencukupi permintaan, terutama pada komponen darah Whole Blood (WB) yang persentase pemenuhan permintaannya hanya berkisar pada 69% – 79%. Ketidakpastian jumlah donor, variasi permintaan, dan keterbatasan masa simpan menjadikan manajemen persediaan darah menjadi suatu sistem kompleks. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan ketidakpastian supply & demand komponen darah WB menggunakan pendekatan probabilistik simulasi Monte Carlo, dengan mempertimbangkan lima variabel acak, yaitu jumlah donor datang, jumlah donor ditolak, jumlah donor gagal, jumlah pemenuhan permintaan rumah sakit mitra, dan jumlah permintaan (demand), dengan distribusi probabilitas yang ditetapkan secara empiris untuk data kelompok (grouped data/interval).
Validasi hasil simulasi yang dilakukan melalui uji beda nonparametrik Mann Whitney menunjukkan tidak adanya perbedaan signifikan antara hasil simulasi seluruh variabel acak dengan data aktualnya, sehingga model yang dibangun dapat diangggap valid dan reliabel menggambarkan sistem nyata. Pengembangan kebijakan persediaan perbaikan dilakukan dengan mengevaluasi enam skenario perbaikan, meliputi penambahan mobile unit, pengadaan supply eksternal, dan penyesuaian alokasi produksi produk turunan. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa seluruh skenario mampu menekan shortage dan meningkatkan service level, dengan konsekuensi peningkatan pada total cost dan penurunan pada net income. Rekomendasi perbaikan yang diusulkan merupakan perbaikan skenario 5, yaitu dengan strategi penambahan 1 unit mobile unit dan pengadaan supply eksternal sebanyak 50 bag/bulan karena kemampuannya dalam meningkatkan service level hingga 93,91% dengan total cost yang mampu mempertahankan nett income positif. Analisis what-if yang dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa model perbaikan memiliki kemampuan adaptif terhadap fluktuasi demand, meskipun dengan toleransi penurunan demand yang relatif sempit dalam segi stabilitas biaya. Penelitian ini memberikan gambaran kemampuan simulasi Monte Carlo dalam memodelkan ketidakpastian supply-demand darah WB di UTD PMI Kota Surabaya, serta memberikan rekomendasi kebijakan persediaan perbaikan dan analisis biaya berbasis simulasi.
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Blood availability is an essential aspect of healthcare services in the field of blood services, including the blood services provided in Surabaya by the Indonesian Red Cross of Surabaya. The daily demand for blood in Surabaya ranges from 250 to 300 units, however, blood supplies sometimes fall short of demand, particularly for Whole Blood (WB), for which the fulfillment rate ranges only from 69% to 79%. The uncertainty regarding the number of donors, variations in demand, and limited shelf life make blood inventory management a complex system. This study aims to model the uncertainty in the supply and demand of whole blood (WB) using a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation approach, taking into account five random variables: the number of donors who arrive, the number of donors rejected, the number of donors who fail to donate, the fulfillment rate of partner hospital’s requests, and the total demand, with probability distributions determined empirically for grouped data (interval). Validation of the simulation results, conducted using nonparametric differences test Mann Whitney, showed no significant differences between the simulation results for all random variables and the actual data, thus, the developed model can be considered valid and reliable in representing the real-world system.The development of an inventory improvement policy was carried out by evaluating six improvement scenarios, including the addition of mobile units, the procurement of external supplies, and adjustments to the production allocation of derivative products. The modeling results show that all scenarios are capable of reducing shortages and improving service levels, with the consequence of an increase in total cost and a decrease in net income. The proposed improvement recommendation is Scenario 5, which involves adding one mobile unit and procuring 50 bags of external supplies per month, due to its ability to increase the service level to 93,91% while maintaining positive nett income. The what-if analysis conducted shows that the improved model has the ability to adapt to fluctuations in demand, although with a relatively
narrow tolerance for demand declines in terms of cost stability. This study illustrates the capability of Monte Carlo simulation in modeling the uncertainty of blood supply and demand at the PMI Blood Transfusion Unit in Surabaya, and provides recommendations for improved inventory policies and simulation-based cost analysis.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Manajemen Persediaan Darah, Supply-Demand Darah, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Analisis Biaya, What-if Analysis, Blood Inventory Management, Blood Supply and Demand, Monte Carlo Simulation, Cost Analysis, What-if Analysis |
| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Adinda Yahya |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Aug 2026 07:33 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Aug 2026 07:33 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/141668 |
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