Penilaian Risiko Pada Onshore Gas Pipeline Menggunakan Metode Kent Muhlbauer

Purwoko, Karya Pamungkas (2026) Penilaian Risiko Pada Onshore Gas Pipeline Menggunakan Metode Kent Muhlbauer. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pipeline merupakan salah satu infrastruktur penting yang berfungsi sebagai media transportasi fluida dari fasilitas produksi menuju fasilitas distribusi maupun konsumen. Pipeline milik PT X telah beroperasi selama bertahun-tahun untuk mendukung produksi gas, tetapi sejak tahun 2024 kegiatan produksi dihentikan sehingga pipeline berada dalam kondisi tidak beroperasi. Kondisi tersebut tetap berpotensi menimbulkan risiko karena proses degradasi material, perubahan kondisi lingkungan, dan penurunan efektivitas sistem proteksi dapat terjadi selama pipeline tidak beroperasi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan penilaian risiko sebelum pengoperasian kembali untuk memastikan kondisi teknis dan tingkat risiko setiap segmen pipa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis Probability of Failure (PoF), Consequence of Failure (CoF), dan menentukan strategi mitigasi risiko pada pipeline milik PT X. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Kent Muhlbauer untuk menentukan nilai PoF berdasarkan parameter exposure, mitigation, dan resistance, serta perangkat lunak ALOHA untuk menganalisis CoF pada pipeline milik PT X melalui pemodelan konsekuensi kebocoran gas berdasarkan API 581 dengan mempertimbangkan dua skenario kondisi cuaca. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa seluruh segmen pipeline memiliki nilai PoF pada kategori 4 dan 5. Hasil pemodelan CoF menunjukkan bahwa skenario pertama menghasilkan nilai CoF final sebesar 885 m², sedangkan skenario kedua menghasilkan nilai CoF final sebesar 540 m², sehingga nilai terbesar sebesar 885 m² dipilih sebagai parameter konsekuensi yang paling konservatif. Hasil penggabungan nilai PoF dan CoF menunjukkan bahwa pada West Trunkline terdapat 8 segmen pada kategori risiko 5C dan 2 segmen pada kategori 4C, sedangkan pada East Trunkline terdapat 7 segmen pada kategori risiko 5C dan 4 segmen pada kategori 4C. Seluruh segmen pipeline berada pada kategori risiko Medium High, sehingga diperlukan penerapan strategi mitigasi. Strategi mitigasi yang direkomendasikan meliputi peningkatan pengendalian aktivitas pihak ketiga, pemantauan kondisi geologi, peningkatan keandalan sistem operasi dan keselamatan, dan pengendalian korosi internal maupun eksternal melalui program inspeksi dan pemeliharaan. Hasil evaluasi projected risk menunjukkan bahwa setelah rekomendasi mitigasi diterapkan, seluruh segmen pipeline mengalami penurunan tingkat risiko menjadi kategori Medium (3C).
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Pipelines are critical infrastructure used to transport fluids from production facilities to distribution facilities and end users. PT X’s pipeline has been in operation for many years to support gas production, but production activities were halted in 2024, leaving the pipeline in a non-operational state. This situation continues to pose potential risks because of material degradation, changes in environmental conditions, and a decline in the effectiveness of the protection system can occur while the pipeline is not in operation. Therefore, a risk assessment is required prior to resuming operations to ensure the technical condition and risk level of each pipeline segment. This study aims to analyze the Probability of Failure (PoF), Consequence of Failure (CoF), and to determine risk mitigation strategies for the pipeline owned by PT X. This study uses the Kent Muhlbauer method to determine the PoF value based on exposure, mitigation, and resistance parameters, as well as ALOHA software to analyze the CoF for PT X’s pipeline through gas leak consequence modeling in accordance with API 581, incorporating two weather scenarios. The analysis results show that all pipeline segments have PoF values in categories 4 and 5. The CoF modeling results show that the first scenario yields a final CoF value of 885 m², while the second scenario yields a final CoF value of 540 m²; therefore, the larger value of 885 m² was selected as the most conservative consequence parameter. The combined results of the PoF and CoF values show that on the West Trunkline there are 8 segments in risk category 5C and 2 segments in category 4C, while on the East Trunkline there are 7 segments in risk category 5C and 4 segments in category 4C. All pipeline segments fall into the Medium-High risk category, thus requiring the implementation of mitigation strategies. The recommended mitigation strategies include enhanced control of third-party activities, monitoring of geological conditions, improved operational reliability and safety, and control of both internal and external corrosion through inspection and maintenance programs. The results of the projected risk evaluation show that after the mitigation recommendations are implemented, the risk level for all pipeline segments will decrease to the Medium (3C) category.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ALOHA, API 581, Kent Muhlbauer, Penilaian Risiko, Pipeline, ALOHA, API 581, Kent Muhlbauer, Pipeline, Risk Assessment
Subjects:	T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery > TJ930 Pipelines (General). Underwater pipelines.
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Karya Pamungkas Purwoko
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2026 03:08
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2026 03:09
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/141771

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