Analisis Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) Terminal Petikemas Internasional di Tanjung Priok Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Kamal, T. Ahyaul (2026) Analisis Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) Terminal Petikemas Internasional di Tanjung Priok Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) merupakan indikator yang digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat pemanfaatan lapangan penumpukan petikemas dan mencerminkan kondisi operasional terminal petikemas. Keterhubungan aktivitas operasional antarterminal petikemas internasional di Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok menyebabkan perubahan YOR pada suatu terminal berpotensi memengaruhi terminal lainnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis karakteristik YOR serta hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar Terminal JICT, KOJA, NPCT1, IPC TPK, dan MAL menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil estimasi VECM menunjukkan bahwa YOR JICT dan YOR KOJA memiliki mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang dengan nilai Error Correction Term (ECT) masing -masing sebesar -0,0141 dan 0,0326. Dalam jangka pendek, perubahan YOR JICT dipengaruhi oleh YOR JICT dan YOR KOJA, perubahan YOR KOJA dipengaruhi oleh YOR KOJA dan YOR NPCT1, perubahan YOR NPCT1 dipengaruhi oleh YOR NPCT1 dan YOR IPC TPK, perubahan YOR IPC TPK dipengaruhi oleh YOR KOJA, sedangkan perubahan YOR MAL dipengaruhi oleh YOR MAL pada periode sebelumnya. Dalam jangka panjang, YOR KOJA, YOR NPCT1, dan YOR MAL memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap keseimbangan jangka panjang sistem. Hasil analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan bahwa respons YOR antar terminal cenderung berfluktuasi dalam jangka pendek dan kembali menuju kondisi stabil dalam jangka panjang. Sementara itu, hasil Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) menunjukkan bahwa variasi YOR pada masing - masing terminal lebih dominan dipengaruhi oleh guncangan internal terminal itu sendiri dibandingkan pengaruh terminal lainnya. =======================================================================================================================================
Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) is an indicator used to measure the level of container yard utilization and reflect the operational condition of container terminals. The interconnection of operational activities among international container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port causes changes in YOR at one terminal to potentially affect other terminals. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of YOR and the short-run and long-run relationships among JICT, KOJA, NPCT1, IPC TPK, and MAL terminals using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM estimation results indicate that YOR JICT and YOR KOJA have adjustment mechanisms toward long-run equilibrium, with Error Correction Term (ECT) values of -0.0141 and 0.0326, respectively. In the short run, changes in YOR JICT are influenced by YOR JICT and YOR KOJA, changes in YOR KOJA are influenced by YOR KOJA and YOR NPCT1, changes in YOR NPCT1 are influenced by YOR NPCT1 and YOR IPC TPK, changes in YOR IPC TPK are influenced by YOR KOJA, while changes in YOR MAL are influenced by YOR MAL in the previous period. In the long run, YOR KOJA, YOR NPCT1, and YOR MAL have significant effects on the long-run equilibrium of the system. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis results show that YOR responses among terminals tend to fluctuate in the short run and return to a stable condition in the long run. Meanwhile, the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) results indicate that variations in YOR at each terminal are more dominantly influenced by internal terminal shocks than by shocks originating from other terminals.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	FEVD, IRF, Terminal Petikemas Internasional, VECM, YOR, FEVD, IRF, International Container Terminal, VECM, YOR
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications > HE551.W36 Container terminals--Management.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	T. Ahyaul Kamal
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2026 02:02
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2026 02:02
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142270

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