Nugroho, Dhio Arieska Lazuardy Prapto (2026) Skenario Spasial Terhadap Aktivitas Perekonomian Dalam Mendukung Pengembangan Wilayah Berketahanan: Studi Kasus Kecamatan Martapura. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Kecamatan Martapura menghadapi beban ganda berupa pertumbuhan perkotaan yang pesat dan kerentanan fisik terhadap risiko bencana banjir, yang mengancam keberlanjutan perekonomian wilayah. Perencanaan pembangunan saat ini seringkali terkendala oleh fenomena "kebutaan spasial" (spatial blindness) akibat terpisahnya analisis data fisik lingkungan dan sosial-ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun skenario spasial terhadap aktivitas perekonomian dalam mendukung pengembangan wilayah berketahanan. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode campuran sekuensial eksplanatori (mixed-methods explanatory sequential). Fase pertama memodelkan determinan keruangan menggunakan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) pada 290 desa di Kabupaten Banjar, memanfaatkan ekstraksi citra cahaya malam (NTL) dan indeks vegetasi (EVI) sebagai proksi aktivitas perekonomian riil. Koefisien model lokal tersebut kemudian diaplikasikan untuk menyimulasikan prediksi perubahan aktivitas perekonomian pasca-intervensi pembangunan pada 26 desa/kelurahan di Kecamatan Martapura. Fase kedua memvalidasi skenario simulasi tersebut secara kualitatif untuk mengonfirmasi kelayakan teknis dan penerimaan sosial melalui observasi lapangan dan wawancara mendalam. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa determinan ekonomi bersifat sangat heterogen secara spasial. Peningkatan infrastruktur konektivitas jalan memberikan daya ungkit ekonomi tertinggi, sementara ekspansi lahan terbangun tanpa kendali di area resapan dan tingginya risiko banjir terbukti mendepresi pertumbuhan lokal. Namun, ditemukan pula anomali ketahanan ekonomi pada kawasan rawan banjir tertentu yang ditopang kuat oleh adaptasi sosial-kultural masyarakat. Kesimpulannya, penelitian ini merumuskan saran dan implikasi kebijakan berbasis bukti (evidence-based policy) yang secara spesifik dievaluasi berdasarkan tiga skenario intervensi: penciptaan rute jalan alternatif, penerapan moratorium perizinan lahan perumahan baru, serta pergeseran mitigasi banjir dari infrastruktur fisik masif menuju adaptasi solusi berbasis alami.
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Martapura District faces a double burden of rapid urban growth and physical vulnerability to flood disaster risks, threatening the region's economic sustainability. Current development planning is often constrained by the phenomenon of "spatial blindness" due to the separation of physical environmental and socio-economic data analyses. This study aims to formulate spatial scenarios on economic activities to support resilient regional development. The method used is a mixed-methods explanatory sequential design. The first phase models spatial determinants using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) across 290 villages in Banjar Regency, utilizing the extraction of Nighttime Lights (NTL) imagery and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as proxies for real economic activities. The local model coefficients are then applied to simulate the predicted changes in economic activities post-development interventions in 26 villages/subdistricts in Martapura District. The second phase qualitatively validates the simulated scenarios to confirm technical feasibility and social acceptability through field observations and in-depth interviews. The results prove that economic determinants are highly spatially heterogeneous. The improvement of road connectivity infrastructure provides the highest economic leverage, while uncontrolled built-up land expansion in water catchment areas and high flood risks are proven to depress local growth. However, an economic resilience anomaly was also found in certain flood-prone areas, strongly supported by the socio-cultural adaptation of the community. In conclusion, this study formulates evidence-based policy suggestions and implications, specifically evaluated based on three intervention scenarios: the creation of alternative road routes, the implementation of a moratorium on new housing land permits, and the shift of flood mitigation from massive physical infrastructure towards nature-based solution adaptations.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Aktivitas Perekonomian; Geographically Weighted Regression; Kebijakan Berbasis Bukti; Ketahanan Wilayah; Simulasi Spasial =========== Economic Activities; Evidence-Based Policy; Geographically Weighted Regression; Regional Resilience; Spatial Simulation |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.5.I4 Remote sensing H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Dhio Arieska Lazuardy Prapto Nugroho |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Aug 2026 02:52 |
| Last Modified: | 03 Aug 2026 02:52 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142271 |
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