Analisis Pemodelan Ekonometrika Spasial Data Panel: Studi Kasus Ketimpangan Pembangunan Antarwilayah di Provinsi Pulau Jawa dan Sumatra

Tampubolon, Gabriel Saputra (2026) Analisis Pemodelan Ekonometrika Spasial Data Panel: Studi Kasus Ketimpangan Pembangunan Antarwilayah di Provinsi Pulau Jawa dan Sumatra. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pulau Jawa dan Sumatra merupakan dua kawasan dengan kontribusi terbesar terhadap perekonomian nasional, namun besarnya kontribusi tersebut belum diikuti oleh pemerataan pembangunan antarwilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah di 16 provinsi Pulau Jawa dan Sumatra periode 2017–2024 menggunakan Indeks Williamson sebagai indikator ketimpangan, serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya dengan mempertimbangkan keterkaitan spasial antarwilayah melalui pendekatan ekonometrika spasial data panel. Tiga spesifikasi model spasial panel dibandingkan, yaitu Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), dengan tiga matriks pembobot spasial, yaitu Queen Contiguity, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN, k=3), dan matriks pembobot kustom. Hasil uji Moran's I menunjukkan adanya autokorelasi spasial positif dan signifikan pada Indeks Williamson di seluruh tahun pengamatan, yang mengindikasikan bahwa disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah membentuk pola pengelompokan spasial. Berdasarkan uji Robust Lagrange Multiplier, Likelihood Ratio Common Factor, dan uji Hausman, model yang digunakan adalah Spatial Durbin Model dengan Fixed Effect (SDM-FE). Berdasarkan pengujian asumsi klasik dan kriteria AIC serta BIC, model terbaik yang terpilih adalah SDM-FE dengan matriks pembobot KNN (k=3). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa kepadatan penduduk dan Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) berpengaruh positif terhadap disparitas pembangunan, sedangkan Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) berpengaruh negatif. Selain itu, ditemukan efek limpahan spasial (spillover effect) yang signifikan dari Angka Partisipasi Sekolah (APS) dan UMP provinsi tetangga terhadap disparitas pembangunan suatu provinsi. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah di Provinsi Pulau Jawa dan Sumatra dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik internal wilayah maupun kondisi sosial-ekonomi wilayah sekitarnya, sehingga pendekatan spasial perlu dipertimbangkan dalam perumusan kebijakan pembangunan regional.
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The islands of Java and Sumatra are the two regions that contribute the most to the national economy; however, the magnitude of this contribution has not been matched by equitable development across regions. This study aims to analyze interregional development disparities across 16 provinces in Java and Sumatra for the period 2017–2024 using the Williamson Index as an indicator of inequality, as well as to identify the factors influencing these disparities by considering the spatial interdependence among regions through a spatial econometric panel data approach. Three spatial panel model specifications were compared: the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), the Spatial Error Model (SEM), and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), using three spatial weighting matrices—Queen Contiguity, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN, k=3), and a custom weighting matrix. The results of the Moran’s I test indicate the presence of positive and significant spatial autocorrelation in the Williamson Index across all observation years, suggesting that development disparities among regions form a spatial clustering pattern. Based on the Robust Lagrange Multiplier test, the Likelihood Ratio Common Factor test, and the Hausman test, the model selected is the Spatial Durbin Model with Fixed Effects (SDM-FE). Based on tests of classical assumptions and the AIC and BIC criteria, the best model selected is the SDM-FE with a KNN weighting matrix (k=3). The estimation results show that population density and Domestic Investment (PMDN) have a positive effect on development disparities, while the Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP) has a negative effect. Furthermore, significant spatial spillover effects were found from the School Enrollment Rate (APS) and the UMP of neighboring provinces on a province’s development disparity. These findings indicate that inter-regional development disparities in the provinces of Java and Sumatra are influenced by both the regions’ internal characteristics and the socioeconomic conditions of surrounding areas; therefore, a spatial approach should be considered in the formulation of regional development policies.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Disparitas Pembangunan, Indeks Williamson, Ekonometrika Spasial Data Panel, Spatial Durbin Model, Efek Limpahan Spasial, Development Disparity, Williamson Index, Spatial Panel Econometrics, Spatial Durbin Model, Spatial Spillover Effect
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Gabriel Saputra Tampubolon
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2026 00:55
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2026 00:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142386

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