Penilaian Risiko Dan Keekonomian Konversi Mesin High Speed Diesel Menjadi Dual Fuel (Hsd -Lng) Pada Kapal Ahts Transko Moloko

Widyarto, Indra (2026) Penilaian Risiko Dan Keekonomian Konversi Mesin High Speed Diesel Menjadi Dual Fuel (Hsd -Lng) Pada Kapal Ahts Transko Moloko. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sektor pelayaran merupakan penyumbang emisi gas rumah kaca global yang signifikan. IMO melalui Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020 mencatat emisi industri pelayaran sebesar 1.076 Mton CO2 ekuivalen pada 2020, dengan proyeksi meningkat 90–130% pada 2050 tanpa mitigasi. Konversi bahan bakar menuju Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) melalui mesin dual-fuel menjadi salah satu opsi transisi yang semakin banyak diadopsi. Penelitian ini mengkaji kelayakan konversi mesin high-speed diesel (HSD) menjadi dual-fuel (HSD–LNG) pada Kapal AHTS Transko Moloko milik PT Pertamina Trans Kontinental yang beroperasi di Kalimantan Timur. Analisis dilakukan melalui tiga pendekatan: (1) identifikasi bahaya menggunakan HAZOP (IEC 61882:2001) pada enam node sistem bahan bakar LNG; (2) analisis frekuensi menggunakan Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) dan Event Tree Analysis (ETA) dengan database DNV-GL, serta analisis konsekuensi kebakaran/ledakan menggunakan ALOHA yang dipetakan pada kurva F–N berdasarkan kriteria ALARP HSE; dan (3) analisis keekonomian mencakup CAPEX, OPEX, NPV, IRR, ROI, CRF, dan Payback Period. Berdasarkan data Vessel Daily Report (VDR) aktual tiga bulan (Maret– Mei 2026, 92 hari operasional), konsumsi Main Engine (M/E) Kapal AHTS Transko Moloko rata-rata 4.309 liter HSD per hari, dengan biaya bahan bakar M/E tahunan (340 hari, harga kontrak PTK-PHM Rp 15.823/liter) mencapai Rp 23,18 miliar. Substitusi LNG (Rp 6.500/L, data SKK Migas 2023) dengan komponen carbon pricing IMO (USD 125/ton CO2eq) diestimasi menghasilkan penghematan bersih Rp 5,18 miliar per tahun. Hasil HAZOP mengidentifikasi 39 deviasi potensial pada enam node sistem, dengan LNG Tank sebagai node berisiko tertinggi (71% dari total skenario); deviasi Low-Level memiliki probabilitas kegagalan tertinggi (FTA: 8,31 × 10⁻⁴/tahun). Kurva F–N menempatkan skenario kebakaran dan ledakan pada zona ALARP hingga Intolerable, memerlukan mitigasi teknis tambahan pada node kritis. Analisis keekonomian dengan carbon pricing menunjukkan NPV positif Rp 35,67 miliar (diskonto 10%, umur 15 tahun), IRR 36,0%, ROI 45,5%, dan Payback Period 3,0 tahun; tanpa carbon pricing, NPV Rp 13,62 miliar dengan IRR 21,1% dan Payback Period 4,96 tahun. Ambang harga LNG agar investasi tetap layak adalah Rp 7.381/L (tanpa carbon pricing) hingga Rp 8.807/L (dengan carbon pricing). Konversi dual-fuel HSD–LNG terbukti layak secara ekonomi dan memberikan reduksi emisi signifikan, dengan syarat kepastian infrastruktur bunkering LNG di Kalimantan Timur
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The shipping sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, with the IMO recording 1,076 Mton CO2-equivalent from shipping in 2020 and projecting a 90-130% increase by 2050 without intervention. Converting to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) via dual-fuel engines has emerged as one of the most practical transitional solutions. This study assesses the feasibility of converting the high-speed diesel (HSD) engine of the AHTS Vessel Transko Moloko (PT Pertamina Trans Kontinental, East Kalimantan) to dual-fuel (HSD-LNG) via three approaches: (1) hazard identification via HAZOP (IEC 61882:2001) on six nodes of the LNG fuel supply system; (2) frequency analysis via Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) using the DNV-GL failure database, with ALOHA fire/explosion consequence simulation mapped onto an F-N curve against HSE ALARP criteria; and (3) economic feasibility analysis covering CAPEX, OPEX, NPV, IRR, ROI, CRF, and Payback Period. Actual Vessel Daily Report (VDR) data over three months (March-May 2026, 92 operational days) show Main Engine (M/E) fuel consumption averaging 4,309 liters HSD/day, with annual M/E fuel cost (340 operating days, PTK-PHM contract price IDR 15,823/liter) of IDR 23.18 billion. LNG substitution (IDR 6,500/L, SKK Migas 2023 data), including IMO carbon pricing (USD 125/ton CO2eq), is estimated to yield net savings of IDR 5.18 billion/year. The HAZOP analysis identified 39 potential deviations across the six system nodes, with the LNG Tank as the highest-risk node (71% of total scenarios); the Low-Level deviation showed the highest failure probability (FTA: 8.31 x 10⁻⁴/year). The F-N curve places fire/explosion scenarios within the ALARP to Intolerable zones, requiring further mitigation at critical nodes. Economic analysis including carbon pricing yields a positive NPV of IDR 35.67 billion (10% discount rate, 15-year life), IRR of 36.0%, ROI of 45.5%, and Payback Period of 3.0 years; without carbon pricing, NPV is IDR 13.62 billion, IRR 21.1%, Payback Period 4.96 years. The breakeven LNG price is IDR 7,381/L without carbon pricing, rising to IDR 8,807/L with carbon pricing. The HSD-LNG conversion is economically viable and delivers significant emission reductions, contingent on LNG bunkering infrastructure availability in East Kalimantan.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	AHTS, bunkering, dual-fuel engine, HAZOP, keekonomian LNG AHTS, bunkering, dual-fuel engine, HAZOP, LNG economics
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Naval Architecture and Shipbuilding Engineering > 36101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Indra Widyarto
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2026 07:39
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2026 07:39
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/142913

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