Model Logistik Kemanusiaan Dengan Angkutan Intermoda Berbasis Skenario Kegagalan Fungsi Pelabuhan Dan Bandara Pasca-Megathrust: Studi Kasus Sumatera Barat

Maulana, Muhamad Zidan (2026) Model Logistik Kemanusiaan Dengan Angkutan Intermoda Berbasis Skenario Kegagalan Fungsi Pelabuhan Dan Bandara Pasca-Megathrust: Studi Kasus Sumatera Barat. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ancaman bencana Megathrust Mentawai berpotensi melumpuhkan pelabuhan dan bandara utama di Sumatera Barat sehingga mengganggu distribusi logistik kemanusiaan. Penelitian ini mengembangkan model optimasi Two-Stage Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) untuk merancang jaringan distribusi logistik kemanusiaan berbasis intermoda yang mampu beroperasi pada kondisi kegagalan infrastruktur komersial dan eskalasi permintaan. Model dibagi menjadi dua fase, yaitu Fase 1 (Tanggap Darurat) yang meminimalkan Lead Time untuk memenuhi golden time (≤72 jam) dan Fase 2 (Pemulihan) yang meminimalkan Total Biaya Distribusi melalui efisiensi skala ekonomi. Pada skenario disrupsi total, model berhasil mengalihkan seluruh distribusi bantuan dari infrastruktur komersial menuju jaringan distribusi taktis menggunakan kapal Landing Craft Tank (LCT) Besar melalui pendaratan pantai serta helikopter kargo melalui zona pendaratan terbuka. Pada kondisi dasar, Fase 1 mendistribusikan 31.402,6 ton melalui 59 rute dengan Maximum Lead Time 62,5 jam dan biaya distribusi Rp121,19 miliar. Fase 2 mendistribusikan 233.957,4 ton melalui 71 rute dengan Maximum Lead Time 66,5 jam dan biaya distribusi Rp920,13 miliar. Analisis sensitivitas pada skenario perubahan permintaan −40% hingga +100% menunjukkan bahwa model mampu memenuhi 100% kebutuhan bantuan dengan Maximum Lead Time tetap berada di bawah batas 72 jam, yaitu 61,9-66,5 jam pada Fase 1 dan 66,4–69,3 jam pada Fase 2. Peningkatan volume distribusi dari 159.268,0 ton menjadi 530.614,0 ton juga mampu dipenuhi dengan Unit Cost yang relatif stabil, yaitu Rp3,10–3,91 juta/ton pada Fase 1 dan Rp3,87-4,03 juta/ton pada Fase 2. Secara finansial, model masih layak hingga skenario +80% dengan total biaya Rp13,69 triliun, namun pada skenario +100% total biaya meningkat menjadi Rp15,19 triliun, sehingga diperlukan dana kontinjensi sekitar Rp192,79 miliar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sistem distribusi intermoda mampu mempertahankan kontinuitas distribusi logistik kemanusiaan melalui strategi distribusi yang berbeda pada setiap fase penanganan bencana, sementara kendala utama implementasi pada kondisi bencana ekstrem terletak pada kapasitas pendanaan, bukan pada kemampuan jaringan distribusi.
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The Mentawai Megathrust poses a significant threat to humanitarian logistics by potentially disrupting major ports and airports in West Sumatra. This study develops a Two-Stage Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model to design an intermodal humanitarian logistics network capable of operating under commercial infrastructure failures and demand escalation. The model consists of two optimization phases: Phase 1 (Emergency Response) minimizes Lead Time to satisfy the golden time requirement (≤72 hours), while Phase 2 (Recovery) minimizes the Total Distribution Cost through economies of scale. Under a total infrastructure disruption scenario, the proposed model successfully reroutes all humanitarian aid from conventional infrastructure to tactical distribution networks using Large Landing Craft Tank (LCT) vessels for beach landing operations and cargo helicopters for open landing zones. In the base scenario, Phase 1 distributes 31,402.6 tons through 59 routes, achieving a Maximum Lead Time of 62.5 hours with a distribution cost of IDR 121.19 billion. Phase 2 distributes 233,957.4 tons through 71 routes, resulting in a Maximum Lead Time of 66.5 hours and a distribution cost of IDR 920.13 billion. Sensitivity analysis under demand variations ranging from −40% to +100% indicates that the model satisfies 100% of humanitarian demand while maintaining the Maximum Lead Time below the 72-hour threshold (61.9–66.5 hours in Phase 1 and 66.4–69.3 hours in Phase 2). The distributed cargo volume increases from 159,268.0 to 530,614.0 tons while maintaining a relatively stable Unit Cost of IDR 3.10–3.91 million per ton in Phase 1 and IDR 3.87–4.03 million per ton in Phase 2. Financial analysis shows that the model remains feasible up to a +80% demand escalation (IDR 13.69 trillion), whereas the +100% scenario requires an additional IDR 192.79 billion contingency fund. The findings demonstrate that the proposed intermodal logistics system maintains humanitarian supply chain continuity through phase-specific distribution strategies, while revealing that financial capacity, rather than network capability, becomes the primary constraint under extreme disaster scenarios.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Logistik Kemanusiaan, Transportasi Intermoda, Kegagalan Fungsi Hub, MILP, Humanitarian Logistics, Intermodal Transportation, Hub Failures, MILP
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD38.5 Business logistics--Cost effectiveness. Supply chain management. ERP
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Transportation Engineering > 21207-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhamad Zidan Maulana
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2026 06:34
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2026 06:34
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143145

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