Analisis Skenario Kelayakan Finansial Proyek Pengembangan Panas Bumi 1x55 MW di Lampung

Ghaisani, Fildzah Aurelia (2026) Analisis Skenario Kelayakan Finansial Proyek Pengembangan Panas Bumi 1x55 MW di Lampung. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pengembangan energi panas bumi di Indonesia menghadapi hambatan kelayakan finansial akibat tingginya biaya investasi awal, besarnya risiko eksplorasi, serta tarif jual listrik berdasarkan Peraturan Presiden Nomor 112 Tahun 2022 yang dinilai belum mencerminkan biaya ekonomi aktual pengembangan panas bumi di Indonesia. Kondisi ini menjadi salah satu penyebab lambatnya pemanfaatan potensi geothermal nasional sebesar 23.591 MW, yang realisasinya baru mencapai sekitar 11%. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan skenario kebijakan yang dapat menjadikan proyek pengembangan panas bumi 1×55 MW di Lampung layak secara finansial di tengah ketidakpastian variabel input. Analisis dilakukan melalui pendekatan Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) untuk menilai kelayakan pada kondisi aktual, dilanjutkan dengan simulasi Monte Carlo terhadap enam variabel input (biaya EPCC SAGS, biaya EPCC PLTP, CAPEX, OPEX, inflasi, dan kurs USD) untuk mengukur risiko secara probabilistik, serta analisis skenario menggunakan Solver untuk merumuskan penyesuaian tarif, insentif fiskal, dan struktur biaya minimum. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proyek pada kondisi aktual tidak layak secara finansial (NPV - Rp621,35 miliar, IRR 5,69%), dengan probabilitas kelayakan 0% berdasarkan 1.000 iterasi simulasi Monte Carlo. Skenario penyesuaian tarif dan fiskal hanya mampu menaikkan probabilitas kelayakan hingga maksimum 1,2%, sedangkan penurunan CAPEX dan OPEX sebesar 30% terbukti jauh lebih efektif, menaikkan probabilitas kelayakan hingga 82,3% dan mencapai 92,6% apabila disertai penurunan tingkat diskonto. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efisiensi struktur biaya investasi dan akses pembiayaan berbiaya rendah memberikan pengaruh yang lebih besar terhadap kelayakan proyek panas bumi skala menengah dibandingkan penyesuaian tarif atau insentif fiskal semata.
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Geothermal energy development in Indonesia faces significant financial feasibility challenges due to high upfront capital costs, substantial exploration risk, and electricity tariffs under Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 that are considered insufficient to reflect the actual economic cost of geothermal development. These conditions have contributed to the slow utilization of Indonesia's 23,591 MW geothermal potential, of which only about 11% has been realized. This study aims to determine the policy scenarios that can make a 1×55 MW geothermal development project in Lampung financially feasible amid uncertainty in key financial variables. The analysis applies a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach to assess feasibility under actual conditions, followed by Monte Carlo simulation across six input variables (SAGS EPCC cost, power plant EPCC cost, CAPEX, OPEX, inflation, and USD exchange rate) to quantify investment risk probabilistically, and scenario analysis using Solver to formulate minimum tariff adjustments, fiscal incentives, and cost-structure interventions. The results show that the project is not financially feasible under actual conditions (NPV of -IDR 621.35 billion, IRR of 5.69%), with a 0% probability of feasibility across 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations. Tariff and fiscal adjustment scenarios only raised the feasibility probability to a maximum of 1.2%, whereas a 30% reduction in CAPEX and OPEX proved far more effective, increasing the feasibility probability to 82.3%, and up to 92.6% when combined with a lower discount rate. These findings indicate that cost-structure efficiency and access to lower-cost financing have a greater impact on the feasibility of mid-scale geothermal projects than tariff or fiscal incentive adjustments alone.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	analisis skenario, discounted cash flow, kelayakan finansial, panas bumi, simulasi Monte Carlo ==========================================================================================
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > TS Manufactures > TS167 Costs, Industrial
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Fildzah Aurelia Ghaisani
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2026 08:41
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2026 08:41
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143570

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