Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Angka Kejadian Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Menggunakan SAR, SEM, dan SARMA

Zahra, Vira Auliaty (2025) Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Angka Kejadian Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Menggunakan SAR, SEM, dan SARMA. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tuberkulosis merupakan salah satu penyakit menular yang masih menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran angka kejadian tuberkulosis serta menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya menggunakan regresi spasial. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder tahun 2024 pada 35 kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Analisis diawali dengan regresi linier berganda, dilanjutkan pengujian autokorelasi spasial menggunakan Indeks Moran dan Lagrange Multiplier, kemudian dilakukan pemodelan menggunakan Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), dan Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA) dengan matriks pembobot Queen Contiguity. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya autokorelasi spasial yang signifikan sehingga model regresi spasial lebih sesuai digunakan. Model terbaik adalah Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) dengan nilai Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) sebesar 430,74 dan Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 sebesar 0,8307. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa persentase penduduk miskin, kepadatan penduduk, prevalensi diabetes melitus, Treatment Success Rate (TSR) tuberkulosis, dan angka kejadian HIV berpengaruh signifikan terhadap angka kejadian tuberkulosis di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Selain itu, parameter spasial ρ sebesar 0,5146 menunjukkan adanya ketergantungan spasial antar kabupaten/kota.
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Tuberculosis remains a major public health problem in Jawa Tengah. This study aimed to describe the distribution of tuberculosis incidence and analyze the factors affecting tuberculosis incidence using spatial regression. The study employed secondary data from 35 districts/cities in Jawa Tengah in 2024. The analysis began with multiple linear regression, followed by spatial autocorrelation testing using Moran's Index and the Lagrange Multiplier test. Spatial regression models, including Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA), were then estimated using the Queen Contiguity spatial weight matrix. The results indicated significant spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that spatial regression was more appropriate than multiple linear regression. The Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model was selected as the best model with an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of 430.74 and a Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 value of 0.8307. The results showed that the percentage of poor population, population density, diabetes mellitus prevalence, tuberculosis Treatment Success Rate (TSR), and HIV incidence significantly affected tuberculosis incidence in Jawa Tengah. In addition, the significant spatial parameter (ρ=0.51459) indicated the presence of spatial dependence among districts/cities.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Jawa Tengah, regresi spasial, SAR, tuberkulosis Jawa Tengah, SAR, spatial regression, tuberculosis.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA401 Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Vira Auliaty Zahra
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2026 01:00
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2026 01:00
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143665

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