Prediksi Dinamika Tutupan Lahan Sebagai Dampak Pembangunan Infrastruktur Ibu Kota Negara Pada Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara

Putra, Dandy Raditya (2026) Prediksi Dinamika Tutupan Lahan Sebagai Dampak Pembangunan Infrastruktur Ibu Kota Negara Pada Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pembangunan infrastruktur Ibu Kota Negara (IKN) Nusantara meningkatkan keterhubungan wilayah dan berpotensi mendorong perubahan tutupan lahan pada kawasan penyangga di Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara, khususnya Kecamatan Penajam, Waru, dan Babulu yang berada di luar kawasan inti perencanaan IKN. Kondisi tersebut menimbulkan dampak perubahan alih fungsi lahan akibat Pembangunan IKN. Untuk mengantisipasi ketidaksesuaian pemanfaatan ruang dan dampak alih fungsi lahan, penelitian ini bertujuan Memprediksi Dinamika Tutupan Lahan Sebagai Dampak Pembangunan Infrastruktur Ibukota Negara Pada Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara. Dalam mencapai tujuan ini, diperlukan tiga tahapan, pertama menentukan tren perubahan tutupan lahan dengan metode Machine Learning. Kedua menetukan Faktor pendorong dan pembatasdengan menggunakan metode Delphi. Ketiga memprediksi dinamika tutupan lahan dengan metode CA-Markov dengan skenario pasca-IKN dan pra-IKN. Faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap perubahan alih fungsi lahan di Kabupaten Penajam Paser Utara meliputi Infrastruktur Baru IKN, jarak terhadap jaringan jalan, jarak terhadap pusat kegiatan, elevasi, kemiringan lereng, dan kepadatan penduduk. Hasil prediksi dinamika tutupan lahan pada tahun 2035 menunjukkan Lahan Hutan tetap mendominasi dengan proporsi 78,99%, meskipun berkurang 2.428,60 Ha (242,86 Ha/tahun) pada kedua skenario. Perbedaan antar skenario paling menonjol pada Lahan Terbangun dan Lahan Terbuka. Skenario pasca-IKN menggambarkan proses pembukaan lahan pada fase konstruksi dengan penambahan Lahan Terbuka 1.217,11 Ha dan Lahan Terbangun 525,92 Ha, sedangkan skenario pra-IKN menghasilkan lonjakan Lahan Terbangun hingga 3.008,54 Ha disertai penurunan Lahan Terbuka 1.375,64 Ha. Hasil prediksi ini menegaskan bahwa skenario pasca-IKN beralih fungsi menjadi Lahan Terbuka, sedangkan hasil dari scenario pra-IKN cenderung beralih fungsi lahan menjadi lahan terbangun.
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The development of infrastructure for Indonesia’s new capital city, Nusantara (IKN), has The development of infrastructure for Indonesia’s new capital city, Nusantara (IKN), has strengthened regional connectivity and may accelerate land cover change in the buffer areas of Penajam Paser Utara Regency, particularly in Penajam, Waru, and Babulu Districts, which are located outside the core planning area of IKN. This development may generate land conversion pressures and increase the risk of inconsistencies between actual land use and the designated spatial plan. Therefore, this study aims to predict land cover dynamics resulting from IKN infrastructure development in Penajam Paser Utara Regency. The research was conducted through three stages. First, land cover change trends were identified using a machine-learning-based approach. Second, the driving and limiting factors of land cover change were determined using the Delphi method. Third, future land cover dynamics were predicted using the CA–Markov model under post-IKN and pre-IKN scenarios. The factors influencing land cover change include new IKN infrastructure, distance to road networks, distance to activity centers, elevation, slope, and population density. The 2035 prediction shows that forest land will remain the dominant land cover class, accounting for 78.99% of the study area, although it is projected to decline by 2,428.60 ha, equivalent to 242.86 ha per year, under both scenarios. The most substantial differences between the scenarios occur in built-up land and open land. The post-IKN scenario reflects continued land clearing during the construction phase, with open land increasing by 1,217.11 ha and built-up land by 525.92 ha. In contrast, the pre-IKN scenario projects a substantial increase in built-up land of 3,008.54 ha, accompanied by a decrease in open land of 1,375.64 ha. These findings indicate that land conversion under the post-IKN scenario is more likely to result in open land, whereas the pre-IKN scenario shows a stronger tendency toward conversion into built-up land.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	CA–Markov; Ibu Kota Nusantara; perubahan tutupan lahan; pembangunan infrastruktur; Penajam Paser Utara; wilayah penyangga, CA–Markov; Indonesia’s new capital city; land cover change; infrastructure development; Penajam Paser Utara.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races > HT133 City and Towns. Land use,urban
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Dandy Raditya Putra
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2026 01:50
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2026 01:50
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143720

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