aruh Faktor Fundamental, Non-fundamental, dan Regulasi terhadap Pembentukan Tarif dan Strategi Komersial Tanker MR dengan Pendekatan System Dynamics

Setyawan, Aditya (2026) aruh Faktor Fundamental, Non-fundamental, dan Regulasi terhadap Pembentukan Tarif dan Strategi Komersial Tanker MR dengan Pendekatan System Dynamics. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri pelayaran Tanker segmen Medium Range (MR) menghadapi dinamika pasar yang semakin kompleks akibat interaksi faktor fundamental, non-fundamental, dan regulasi global. Keputusan antara kontrak Time Charter (TC) dan Spot charter tidak lagi dapat ditentukan semata-mata oleh indikator pasar tradisional. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh faktor fundamental (supply-demand), non-fundamental (Geopolitical Risk Index dan Sanction Exposure), serta regulasi maritim (Carbon Intensity Indicator dan Net Zero Framework) terhadap pembentukan TC Rate dan Spot Rate kapal tanker MR dalam horizon 2026-2051, sekaligus mengembangkan strategi komersialisasi optimal yang didasarkan pada nilai keekonomian serta faktor risiko. Metodologi yang digunakan adalah System Dynamics Modelling dengan tiga kondisi bertingkat (S1: fundamental, S2: non-fundamental, S3: regulasi) serta skenario strategi pemasaran yaitu hanya TC Only, optimal, dan Spot Only. Optimasi dikembangkan melalui Threshold-Based Switching Rule dan evaluasi risiko menggunakan Certainty Equivalent NPV berbasis Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) dari 11 responden expert. Hasil menunjukkan faktor non-fundamental mendorong TC Rate naik di atas baseline S1 pada 2026-2029, sementara regulasi CII mengkonvergensi Spot Rate dan TC Rate pasca-2030. Strategi optimal terdiri dari tiga fase: TC 2-yr Lock (30:70) pada 2026-2029, TC 1-yr Lock (45:55) pada 2030-2040, dan TC 1-yr Lock (35:65) pada 2041-2051. Secara risk-adjusted, Strategi Optimal menghasilkan Certainty Equivalent NPV tertinggi USD 2.124.560 (λ = 0,8075), melampaui Spot-Only (USD 2.039.372) dan TC-Only (USD 1.726.510), dengan NPV nominal USD 2.630.940 dan break-even 2046.
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The Medium Range (MR) tanker shipping industry faces increasingly complex market dynamics driven by the interaction of fundamental, non-fundamental, and global regulatory factors. Decisions between Time Charter (TC) and Spot charter contracts can no longer be determined solely by traditional market indicators. This study analyses the influence of fundamental factors (supply-demand), non-fundamental factors (Geopolitical Risk Index Index and Sanction Exposure), and maritime regulations (Carbon Intensity Indicator and Net Zero Framework) on TC Rate and Spot Rate formation for MR tankers over the 2026-2051 horizon, while simultaneously developing an optimal commercialization strategy grounded in economic value and risk assessment. The methodology employs System Dynamics Modelling across three layered conditions (S1: fundamental, S2: non-fundamental, S3: regulatory) and three marketing strategy scenarios (TC-Only, Optimal, and Spot-Only). Optimization is developed through a Threshold-Based Switching Rule, with risk evaluation conducted using Certainty Equivalent NPV based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) assessments from 11 expert respondents. Results show that non-fundamental factors drive TC Rate above the S1 baseline during 2026-2029, while CII regulation converges Spot Rate and TC Rate post-2030. The optimal strategy comprises three phases: TC 2-yr Lock (30:70) in 2026-2029, TC 1-yr Lock (45:55) in 2030-2040, and TC 1-yr Lock (35:65) in 2041-2051. On a risk-adjusted basis, the Optimal Strategy yields the highest Certainty Equivalent NPV of USD 2,124,560 (λ = 0.8075), surpassing Spot-Only (USD 2,039,372) and TC-Only (USD 1,726,510), with a nominal NPV of USD 2,630,940 and break-even in 2046.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Geopolitik, Keekonomian, Regulasi, Strategi Komersialisasi, System Dynamics, Tanker MR. Commercialization Strategy, Economic Feasibility, Geopolitics, MR Tanker, Regulation, System Dynamics.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.5 Data Processing T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.83 Dynamic programming T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.8 Productivity. Efficiency
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36101-(S2) Master Theses
Depositing User:	Aditya Setyawan
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2026 03:08
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2026 03:08
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/143798

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