Analisis Risiko Akibat Perubahan Termin Pembayaran Terhadap Biaya Pembangunan Kapal

Ramadhan, Andhika Putra (2026) Analisis Risiko Akibat Perubahan Termin Pembayaran Terhadap Biaya Pembangunan Kapal. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan termin pembayaran setelah pencapaian milestone dapat mengubah waktu dan jumlah penerimaan kas, sedangkan pembayaran material, biaya pekerjaan langsung, dan biaya pendukung tetap jatuh tempo sesuai jadwal. Kondisi tersebut dapat menyebabkan kas galangan tidak mencukupi untuk memenuhi kewajiban proyek, menimbulkan kebutuhan pendanaan tambahan, dan meningkatkan biaya pembangunan kapal. Penelitian ini bertujuan membentuk skenario perubahan termin pembayaran, menganalisis pengaruhnya terhadap arus kas mingguan dan kemampuan galangan memenuhi kewajiban proyek, serta mengevaluasi mitigasi melalui fasilitas Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK), dana kontingensi, dan kombinasi keduanya.
Penelitian dilakukan pada proyek pembangunan Tug Boat 2 × 1800 HP dengan nilai kontrak Rp68.235.393.166,00 dan total cash out Rp57.300.194.597,00. Risiko diidentifikasi berdasarkan ISO 31000:2018, sedangkan skenario dibentuk menggunakan scenario analysis berdasarkan IEC 31010:2019. Simulasi deterministik mingguan dilakukan terhadap satu kondisi eksisting, enam skenario perubahan waktu pembayaran, dan delapan skenario perubahan persentase pembayaran. Nilai kontrak, total termin, kas awal sebesar 30% dari nilai kontrak, progres, milestone, jadwal pembayaran material, biaya pekerjaan langsung, dan biaya pendukung dibuat tetap.
Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa sembilan dari 14 skenario perubahan menghasilkan funding gap (FG). FG maksimum terbesar terjadi pada PP-7 sebesar Rp20.257.826.948,69 pada M65 dengan durasi 24 minggu. Durasi FG terpanjang terjadi pada PP-8 selama 31 minggu, yaitu M48–M78, dengan FG maksimum Rp9.535.419.380,80 pada M75. Seluruh alternatif mitigasi dapat menghilangkan FG apabila dana tersedia paling lambat pada minggu pertama kekurangan kas. Limit dana kontingensi sebesar 50% nilai kontrak atau Rp34.117.696.583,00 memenuhi seluruh kebutuhan, dengan utilisasi maksimum Rp20.257.826.948,69 atau 59,38% pada PP-7. KMK meningkatkan biaya pembangunan kapal sebesar 0,68%–3,10%, dana kontingensi 0,03%–0,97%, dan kombinasi 0,54%–2,16%. Dana kontingensi menghasilkan biaya terendah, KMK mempertahankan kas internal, sedangkan kombinasi membagi pendanaan internal dan eksternal. Perubahan termin yang menghasilkan FG hanya layak diterima apabila pendanaan tersedia, owner memberikan jaminan pembayaran dan penggantian biaya mitigasi, serta perubahan dituangkan dalam adendum kontrak sebelum perubahan tersebut disetujui oleh galangan kapal.
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Changes to payment installments after milestones may alter cash receipt timing and amounts, while material and project costs remain due as scheduled. This may leave the shipyard unable to meet obligations, create financing requirements, and increase shipbuilding costs. This study develops payment-installment change scenarios, analyzes their effects on cash flow, and evaluates mitigation through a Working Capital Loan (Kredit Modal Kerja or KMK), a contingency fund, and their combination. The study examines a 2 × 1800 HP Tug Boat construction project with a contract value of IDR 68,235,393,166.00 and cash outflow of IDR 57,300,194,597.00. Risks were identified based on ISO 31000:2018, while scenarios were developed using IEC 31010:2019 scenario analysis. A weekly simulation covered one existing condition, six payment-timing scenarios, and eight payment-percentage scenarios. Contract value, payment installments, initial cash of 30% of contract value, progress, milestones, material payment schedule, and costs were held constant. Results show that nine of 14 change scenarios generated a funding gap (FG). The largest FG occurred in PP-7 at IDR 20,257,826,948.69 in Week 65, lasting 24 weeks. The longest FG occurred in PP-8, lasting 31 weeks from Week 48 to Week 78, with a maximum FG of IDR 9,535,419,380.80 in Week 75. All mitigation alternatives eliminated the FG when sufficient funds were available by the first shortage week. A contingency fund limit of 50% of contract value, or IDR 34,117,696,583.00, met all financing requirements, with maximum utilization of 59.38% in PP-7. KMK increased shipbuilding costs by 0.68%–3.10%, contingency funding by 0.03%–0.97%, and the combined alternative by 0.51%–2.04%. The contingency fund produced the lowest cost, KMK preserved internal cash, and the combination distributed internal and external financing. Payment-installment changes generating an FG are feasible only when financing is available, the owner provides payment security and mitigation-cost reimbursement, and changes are formalized through a contract addendum.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	arus kas mingguan, dana kontingensi, Kredit Modal Kerja, pembangunan kapal, perubahan termin pembayaran. contingency fund, payment instalments, shipbuilding, weekly cash flow, working capital loan.
Subjects:	V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering > VM156 Naval architecture V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering > VM298.5 Shipbuilding industri. Shipyards
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Naval Architecture and Shipbuilding Engineering > 36201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Andhika Putra Ramadhan
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2026 06:06
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2026 06:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/144018

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