Analisis Pemodelan Jumlah Kasus Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Geographically and Temporally Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GTWGPR)

Mumtaz, Daffa Dzaky (2026) Analisis Pemodelan Jumlah Kasus Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Geographically and Temporally Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GTWGPR). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 5003221004-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (9MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Penyakit Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) masih menjadi isu kesehatan masyarakat di Indonesia, terutama di Provinsi Jawa Timur yang mencatat 9.359 kasus kumulatif tahun 2024. Lonjakan kasus ini merupakan hasil interaksi berbagai faktor termasuk kondisi sosial-ekonomi, keterbatasan akses layanan kesehatan, stigma sosial, keterlambatan diagnosis, dan ketidakpatuhan terhadap terapi yang menghambat upaya pengendalian. Hal tersebut menunjukkan adanya variasi pengaruh antarwilayah dan waktu sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi jumlah kasus AIDS baru di Provinsi Jawa Timur menggunakan Geographically and Temporally Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GTWGPR). Data yang digunakan adalah data jumlah kasus AIDS baru pada 38 provinsi/kota pada tahun 2022-2024 beserta 8 variabel prediktor yang diduga berpengaruh. Tahapan analisis meliputi analisis deskripsi data, pemodelan Generalized Poisson Regression (GPR) exposure, pengujian overdispersi dan perbedaan median, pemodelan GWGPR exposure dan GTWGPR exposure dengan fungsi pembobot adaptive bisquare dan adaptive gaussian. Hasil penelitan menunjukkan bahwa terdapat heterogenitas spasial dan temporal pada jumlah kasus AIDS baru. Model terbaik diperoleh pada GTWGPR exposure tahun 2023-2024 menggunakan fungsi pembobot adaptive bisquare dengan nilai AICc sebesar 40.517,69. Hasil pemodelan juga menghasilkan 2 kelompok dan faktor-faktor yang signifikan berbeda setiap kabupaten/kota. Pada GTWGPR exposure tahun 2023-2024, variabel persentase penduduk miskin, kepadatan penduduk, rasio klinik KB, rasio pos pelayanan KB, rasio kontrasepsi kondom peserta KB aktif, rasio puskesmas, dan rasio kontrasepsi jarum suntik peserta KB aktif yang hanya berpengaruh signifikan di beberapa kabupaten/kota tertentu.
=======================================================================================================================================
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) remains a public health issue in Indonesia, particularly in East Java Province, which recorded 9,359 cumulative cases in 2024. This surge results from the interaction of various factors, including socio-economic conditions, limited access to health services, social stigma, delayed diagnosis, and non-adherence to therapy, all of which hinder control efforts. These conditions indicate variation in influence across regions and time, so this study aims to model the factors affecting the number of new AIDS cases in East Java Province using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression (GTWGPR). The data used were the number of new AIDS cases in 38 regencies/cities from 2022 to 2024, along with 8 predictor variables presumed to have an effect. The analysis stages included descriptive data analysis, Generalized Poisson Regression (GPR) exposure modeling, overdispersion and median difference testing, and GWGPR exposure and GTWGPR exposure modeling using adaptive bisquare and adaptive Gaussian weighting functions. The results showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the number of new AIDS cases. The best model was obtained from GTWGPR exposure for 2023-2024 using the adaptive bisquare weighting function, with an AICc value of 40,517.69. The modeling results also produced 2 groups, with significant factors differing across regencies/cities. In the 2023-2024 GTWGPR exposure model, the variables of poor population percentage, population density, family planning clinic ratio, family planning service post ratio, condom contraceptive ratio among active family planning participants, community health center (puskesmas) ratio, and injectable contraceptive ratio among active family planning participants were significant only in certain regencies/cities.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	AIDS, Jawa Timur, Overdispersi, East Java, GTWGPR, Overdispersion
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Daffa Dzaky Mumtaz
Date Deposited:	04 Nov 2026 07:44
Last Modified:	04 Nov 2026 07:44
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/146025

Actions (login required)

View Item