ROAD PAVEMENT CONDITION MODELLING AND PREDICTION USING BAYESIAN NETWORK

SARI, ALIP NOVITA (2016) ROAD PAVEMENT CONDITION MODELLING AND PREDICTION USING BAYESIAN NETWORK. In: ICER ITS, ITS.

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Abstract

Road deterioration is caused by poor structure, poor drainage, climatic or geological effect and loading. The existing models for condition prediction can be categorized into three main groups, namely deterministic models, probabilistic models and Bayesian models. Among them, one of the most commonly used discrete time stochastic process models is the Markov Chain (MC) model. However, it has limitations that cannot renewedroad deterioration factors in real time. This research can minimizethe limitation of Markov Chain using prediction model, which is more real time because it is considered by the road damage factors and conditional dependence relationship of the factors. The architecture design of proposed model using Bayesian Network. The proposed model requires Static Bayesian Network (BN). Static Bayesian Network identifies factors responsible for pavement failure and conditional dependence relationship of the factors.. In creating a model, there are two sources of information used namely expert knowledge and historical data. The purpose of this research is to develop road deterioration model for predicting future road condition in national road network on the national road of Batas Kota Caruban – Batas KabNganjuk. The prediction results showed that the road condition in next year is 51 % in a good condition, 44 % in a moderate condition, 3 % in bad condition and only 1 % in a very bad condition. Value road conditions increased by 14 % compared to the previous condition.The prediction result of this model can be used to prepare roadmaintenance plan. In addition, this model will improve an effective maintenance optimization

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Prediksi kondisi perkerasan jalan, DBN, Ruas Jalan Nasional Batas Kota Caruban – Batas Kabupaten Nganjuk, CPT, EM, MAPE
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
T Technology > TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements
Divisions: Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Civil Engineering and the Environment
Depositing User: - ALIP NOVITASARI
Date Deposited: 03 Jun 2016 15:03
Last Modified: 27 Dec 2018 07:03
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/177

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