Utami, Efrilla Rita (2017) Penerapan Generalized Spatial Three Stage Least Square (GS3SLS) Pada Persamaan Simultan Spasial Untuk Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa Timur. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu provinsi di Indonesia yang mempunyai posisi strategis sebagai pintu masuk perdagangan wilayah barat dan timur serta jumlah penduduk terbesar kedua setelah Provinsi Jawa Barat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Timur selama kurun waktu 2011-2015 mengalami pertumbuhan yang melambat, tetapi masih di atas laju pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Nilai IPM Jawa Timur, terkait dengan pembangunan manusianya, menunjukkan peningkatan setiap tahun tetapi di bawah angka nasional. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan dampaknya terhadap pembangunan manusia maupun sebaliknya mempunyai hubungan yang saling mempengaruhi (two way relationship) sehingga untuk memodelkan digunakan sistem persamaan simultan. Pada penelitian ini digunakan model persamaan simultan spasial dengan prosedur generalized spatial three stage least square (GS3SLS), sehingga tidak hanya aspek keterkaitan antar variabel sosial ekonomi dapat tergambar tetapi juga efek spasial yang menggambarkan keterkaitan antar wilayah di Jawa Timur. Hasil uji Lagrange Multiplier menunjukkan bahwa model spasial autoregressive (SAR) adalah model yang sesuai untuk menggambarkan hubungan pembangunan manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Timur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemodelan GS3SLS SAR dengan bobot Rook Contiguity lebih baik dengan koefisien determinasi sebesar 81,93% untuk persamaan IPM dan 46,59% untuk persamaan LPE, selain itu bisa menangkap efek timbal balik antara pembangunan manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Keterkaitan antar lokasi bersifat positif dan signifikan pada variabel IPM. Pada persamaan IPM elastisitas tertinggi ditunjukkan oleh variabel LPE sebesar 0,281 persen dan variabel gini rasio sebesar 0,118 persen. Pada persamaan LPE, elastisitas tertinggi ditunjukkan oleh variabel IPM sebesar 0,440 persen kemudian variabel UMK sebesar 0,088 persen.
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East Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has a strategic position as the gateway of trade western and eastern regions as well as the population of the second largest after the West Java Province. East Java's economic growth during the period 2011-2015 growth is slowing, but still above the national economic growth. While the value of the HDI of East Java related to human development show an increase every year but below the national average. Economic growth and its impact on human development or otherwise have a relationship of mutual influence (two way relationship), but the factors that relate specifically has not been systematically explored. Studies of this complex can be explained using a model of simultaneous equations spatially with the procedure generalized spatial three stage least square (GS3SLS), so it is not the only aspect of the relationship between socioeconomic variables can be imaged in a simultaneous equation but also the spatial effects that illustrate patterns of interaction of these variables between regions in East Java. Lagrange Multiplier test results show that the model of spatial autoregressive (SAR) is the appropriate model to describe the relationship of human development and economic growth in East Java. The results showed that modeling GS3SLS SAR weighs Contiguity Rook better with determination coefficient of 81.93% for and 46.59% HDI equation to equation LPE, otherwise it could catch a reciprocal effect between human development and economic growth. The linkage between locations is positive and significant in the Human Development Index variables. At the highest elasticity HDI shown by variable of LPE of 0,281 percent and variable of gini ratio of 0,118percent. In the LPE, the highest elasticity shown by the HDI variable of of 0,440 percent and district minimum wage of 0,088 percent.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Pembangunan manusia, pertumbuhan ekonomi, persamaan simultan spasial, GS3SLS. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics |
| Depositing User: | EFRILLA RITA UTAMI |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Mar 2017 04:16 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Mar 2019 07:30 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/2460 |
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