Pendekatan Regresi Semiparametrik Spline Untuk Memodelkan Rata-Rata Umur Kawin Pertama Di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Pratiwi, Dhira Audhia (2017) Pendekatan Regresi Semiparametrik Spline Untuk Memodelkan Rata-Rata Umur Kawin Pertama Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penyebab utama pertambahan penduduk yang besar setiap tahunnya adalah kelahiran. Kelahiran erat kaitannya dengan umur kawin pertama. Umur kawin pertama (UKP) adalah umur pada saat wanita menikah pertama kali. Jawa Timur memiliki rata-rata UKP wanita sebesar 22 tahun, dan merupakan terendah kedua di Pulau Jawa setelah Banten. Sebanyak lebih dari 50 persen wanita di Jawa Timur kawin di usia kurang dari 20 tahun pada tahun 2012. Terdapat 5 faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi UKP, yaitu persentase penduduk yang tinggal di pedesaan, rata-rata lama sekolah wanita, persentase penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja, persentase penduduk miskin, dan gini ratio. Pemodelan UKP menggunakan regesi semiparametrik spline linier karena hubungan antara rata-rata UKP wanita Provinsi Jawa Timur dengan sebagian faktor yang diduga mempengaruhinya tidak membentuk pola tertentu dan sebagian lagi membentuk pola tertentu. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, terdapat 4 faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap UKP, yaitu rata-rata lama sekolah wanita, persentase penduduk yang tinggal di pedesaan, persentase penduduk wanita usia 15 tahun keatas yang bekerja, dan gini ratio. Model regresi semiparametrik spline menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 90,77%. ================================================================================================================== The main cause of the large population growth is fertility. Fertility closely related to the age at first marriage. Age at first marriage (UKP) is the age when a woman first married. East Java has an average UKP woman for 22 years, and is the second lowest in Java after Banten. A total of more than 50 percent of women in East Java were married in less than 20 years of age in 2012. There are 5 factors suspected to affect UKP, ie the percentage of the population living in rural areas, the average length of girls' schools, the percentage of women’s population aged 15 years and older who are working, the percentage of poor people, and the gini ratio. UKP’s modeling is processed using linear spline semiparametric regession because the relationship between the average woman UKP in East Java province with most factors suspected to affect not form a specific pattern and others form a particular pattern. Based on the analysis, there are four factors that significantly influence the UKP, which is the average length of girls' schools, the percentage of the population living in rural areas, the percentage of women aged 15 and older who are working, and the Gini ratio. Spline semiparametric regression model has coefficient of determination of 90,77%.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: rata-rata umur kawin pertama, regresi semiparametrik, spline
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: DHIRA AUDHIA PRATIWI
Date Deposited: 13 Apr 2017 07:57
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2019 06:23
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/3626

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