Setyohadi, Pratomo (2017) Model Manajemen Risiko Berbasis Respon Dinamis Untuk Memitigasi Dampak Perubahan Regulasi Maritim: Perspektif Pemilik Kapal Tanker. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Industri maritim, khususnya industri perkapalan adalah industri yang padat regulasi. Selain padat, regulasi ini bersifat dinamis, rentan terhadap perubahan dalam rangka menjawab dan menyesuaikan perkembangan zaman dan tuntutan masyarakat. Hal yang menarik adalah, perubahan regulasi juga sering dipicu oleh terjadinya peristiwa besar dan menjadi sorotan publik. Sebagai contoh, SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) lahir setelah kapal Titanic tenggelam pada tahun 1912 dan MARPOL (Marine Pollution) mengeluarkan perubahan regulasi untuk kapal tanker dari single hull menjadi double hull setelah peristiwa tumpahnya cargo minyak ke laut kapal tanker Exxon Valdez tahun 1989.
Substansi perubahan regulasi biasanya mencakup instrumen kapal, sistem operasional kapal, muatan, personil di atas kapal, lingkungan, keamanan dan keselamatan kapal. Sumber regulasi yang pertama meliputi regulasi internasional dibawah IMO (International Maritime Organisation), yang kedua adalah regulasi port state, yang ketiga pada kawasan tertentu yang bertindak secara sepihak seperti regulasi yang dikeluarkan oleh kawasan Eropa Barat, Amerika Utara dan Laut Baltik, yang keempat adalah regulasi dari industri maritim dan terakhir adalah kebijakan regulasi dari suatu perusahaan yang digunakan untuk kepentingan perusahaan tersebut. Dalam kurun waktu 14 tahun terakhir, Terdapat 834 perubahan peraturan regulasi maritim internasional produk IMO seperti SOLAS, STCW (Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping), MARPOL dan Load Line Certification yang akan mulai diterapkan hingga tahun 2019 secara internasional. Sementara itu, 125 perubahan regulasi berdampak pada kapal tanker, 83 diantaranya bersifat wajib (mandatory). Artinya, frekuensi perubahan regulasi tergolong tinggi rata-rata hampir mencapai tujuh kali perubahan regulasi per tahun.
Di lain sisi, para pemain dalam industri perkapalan khususnya pemilik kapal tanker memiliki peranan penting dalam industri perkapalan yaitu sebagai titik tumpu (pivotal point), dalam rangkaian proses bergeraknya bisnis perkapalan secara financial. Terlebih lagi, pemilik kapal tanker menjadi pemain yang pertama kali terpapar risiko akibat dari perubahan regulasi maritim. Pemilik kapal tanker wajib untuk memenuhi peraturan regulasi maritim agar sesuai dengan regulasi maritim internasional yang disyaratkan dengan tujuan agar dapat tetap memepertahankan aktivitas bisnisnya
Industri maritim melibatkan banyak pemangku kepentingan (stakeholder) diantaranya adalah negara bendera (flag state), pemilik kapal (ship owner), operator kapal (ship operator), negera pantai (coastal state), pemilik muatan (cargo owner), galangan kapal, kru kapal dan asuransi.
Tujuan disertasi ini adalah mengukur dampak risiko atas perubahan regulasi maritim terhadap pemilik kapal tanker yang beroperasi secara internasional. Penelitian disertasi berfokus pada dua pertanyaan utama (two primary research questions):
1. Seberapa besar dampak perubahan regulasi maritim menimbulkan risiko terhadap kelangsungan bisnis kapal pengangkut minyak, khususnya dalam perspektif pemilik kapal tanker?
2. Bagaimana hasil simulasi dan analisis dampak perubahan regulasi maritim terhadap CAPEX, OPEX dan Freight kapal tanker?
Untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan penelitian diatas, dilakukan pendekatan metode kuantitatif. Perubahan regulasi maritim yang dibahas adalah perubahan regulasi bersumber dari IMO yang bersifat mandatory atas konvensi internasional utama (major) yang berlaku bagi kapal tanker mencakup SOLAS tentang keselamatan di atas kapal, MARPOL berkaitan dengan lingkungan dan STCW berkaitan dengan kru kapal. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan dinamika sistem (system dynamic) untuk menunjukan bahwa perubahan regulasi dianggap sebagai tantangan bagi para pemain industri maritim. Penilaian risiko dilakukan untuk mengetahui level risiko dan mitigasi risiko dari perubahan regulasi. Pemodelan dinamika sistem dilakukan dengan menggunakan aplikasi (tools) Powersim Studio.
Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dinamika sistem mampu memberikan hasil penilaian risiko (konsekuensi finansial) yang sangat akurat akibat dari perubahan-perubahan regulasi maritim. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dampak finansial perubahan-perubahan regulasi yang terjadi masuk dalam kategori “moderate” bila dibandingkan dengan besarnya nilai cash flow bisnis perkapalan khususnya kapal tanker. Efek finansial perubahan regulasi hanya setara dengan 5% ketidakpastian variable voyage cost dan operation cost. Hasil ini didapat dari simulasi monte carlo. Kecilnya pengaruh perubahan regulasi ini dikarenakan banyaknya variable biaya lain yang secara tidak langsung dan tidak tercatat sebagai compliance cost misalnya kegiatan-kegiatan dalam rangka memenuhi regulasi seperti rapat, koordinasi, konsolidasi, komunikasi, perencanaan implementasi yang berisiko kepada operasional kapal, pembelian, permasalahan teknis, docking, dan lain-lain.
Perubahan regulasi tidak dapat dihindari namun terdapat beberapa alternatif dan cara untuk mengurangi konsekuensi perubahan tersebut yaitu dengan memperhatikan faktor-faktor biaya langsung maupun faktor yang sering kali tidak tercatat sebagai direct compliance cost.
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Shipping industry is a highly regulated one with many regulations. Such regulations not only too much, but also dynamic, change frequently, to answer the needs of society. The interesting thing is that such regulation changes are also often triggered by occurrence of a major event and become public spotlight. For example, SOLAS (the international convention on the safety of life at sea) was established in 1914 after the Titanic sank in 1912, and MARPOL (the international convention on the pollution prevention from ships) was amended with double hull regulation after the case of Exxon Valdez in 1989.
The content of regulation changes in all cases can be grouped in ship instrument/construction, operation, cargo, crew, environment, and security. There are four source of regulations, namely international conventions with the related amendments (e.g. IMO, ILO), unilateral legal instruments (e.g. EU regulations, US law), creation of port state control regimes who perform inspections (e.g. Asia-Pacific within Tokyo MOU), and creation of industry driven (e.g. SIRE, vetting). During the last 14 years (2006—2019), there are 834 regulatory changes in maritime regulations conducted by IMO.
In period of last 14 years, there are 834 IMO regulatory changes, namely SOLAS, STCW (Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping), MARPOL and Load Line Certification which will begin to apply until 2019.
Meanwhile, there are 125 regulatory changes that specifically affect oil tankers and 83 of these are mandatory. This is means frequency of regulatory changes relatively high, almost in average 7 times per year.
On the other hand, the players in the shipping industry, especially tanker ship owner has an important role in the shipping industry, as pivot point,
in sequential process in shipping business cycle. Moreover, tanker ship owner become the first player who will be exposed in facing the risk of international maritime regulation changes. The owner is compelled to comply with the maritime regulatory change in order to run their business as usual.
Maritime industry involves many stakeholders, namely flag state, ship operator, coastal state, cargo owner, shipyard, crew and insurance.
Thesis of this dissertation was to examined international maritime regulatory changes have an impact of risk to shipping industry players, especially tanker ship owner that operates internationally. Dissertation research focuses on primary research question:
(1). Does international maritime regulatory changes pose a risk to tankers business continuity, especially in perspective tanker ship owner?
To check more detail, there are three sub research question that can be explore:
1. How do findings analysis of financial risk effect of maritime regulation changes based on tanker owner perspective?
2. How do findings simulation impact of maritime regulation changes to CAPEX, OPEX and freight of tanker shipping company?
To answer the research questions above, this research doing quantitative method approach. International maritime regulatory changes that will be discussed are sourced from IMO regulatory changes that are mandatory on major international convention that complied to tankers, include SOLAS about safety on board, MARPOL related to marine environment and STCW related to the crew. This research using system dynamic tools that showed regulatory changes are considered as a challenge for the players in maritime industry. The risk assessment was concudted to determine level of risk and mitigation strategy of regulatory changes. The modelling of system dynamic using Powersim Studio 8 Academic software.
The research concluded that system dynamics is capable of providing an accurate results of risk assement (financial impact) particulary on the change in maritime regulations.
In addition, the simulation results shows that the financial impact of regulatory changes is moderate to the the cash flow on the shipping industry, especially tanker business.
Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation shows that financial impacts of regulatory changes is equivalent to 5% uncertainty when compared with the total of voyage cost and operation cost. The difference of this small effect is due to the unspecified and unlisted other variable cost that are not directly affect the shipping company when comply with such regulatory changes. For instance, meetings cost, coordination cost, consolidation cost, communication cost, planning cost and others implementation cost that indirectly affect the ship operations, purchasing, technical problems, docking, etc. Changes in maritime regulations can not be avoided but there is a few alternative and decisions to reduce the consequences of these changes, specifically by observing and specifiying the direct and indirect cost that often not recorded as compliance cost.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Manajemen Risiko; Respon Dinamis; Kapal; Kapal Tanker |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Naval Architecture and Shipbuilding Engineering > 36001-(S3) PhD Thesis |
| Depositing User: | PRATOMO PRATOMO SETYOHADI |
| Date Deposited: | 04 May 2017 07:06 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2019 07:02 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/41181 |
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