Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Bulanan Di Gresik, Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Dan Fungsi Transfer

Azalia, Irmanita (2016) Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Bulanan Di Gresik, Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Dan Fungsi Transfer. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Peningkatan jumlah pelanggan listrik tiap tahunnya di Indonesia mengakibatkan kebutuhan energi listrik juga terus meningkat sehingga PT. PLN (Persero) harus dapat memperkirakan kapasitas pembangkit listrik yang dibutuhkan di Indonesia untuk jangka waktu ke depan, maka diperlukan peramalan konsumsi listrik agar kebutuhan pelanggan listrik terpenuhi. Sehingga pada penelitian dilakukan peramalan konsumsi listrik pada lima sektor, yaitu sektor sosial, rumah tangga, bisnis, industri, dan publik menggunakan metode peramalan ARIMA dan ANFIS. Selain itu, digunakan metode fungsi transfer untuk mengetahui pengaruh jumlah pelanggan listrik terhadap konsumsi listrik. Hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini bahwa metode peramalan dengan ARIMA pada konsumsi listrik tiap sektor menghasilkan nilai error ramalan yang lebih baik bila dibandingkan dengan metode ANFIS. Pada metode fungsi transfer diperoleh model pada masing-masing sektor sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa jumlah pelanggan berpengaruh terhadap peramalan jumlah konsumsi listrik pada masing-masing sektor. ================================================================================================================== The number of customers of the electricity increases remarkably every year; consequently, demands over electricity power also subsequently increase. Pertinent to this, PT. PLN (Persero) has to be able to forecast the capacities of needed power plants for the coming years or decades; therefore, forecasting over the consumptions of the electricity needs to be made to meet the customer’s demands. In this present research, forecasting over electricity consumption is made covering five demands, namely social, domestic, business, industry, and public. This employs ARIMA and ANFIS forecasting method; besides that function transfer method is also used to figure out the effects of the customers numbers over the uses of electricity. The finding of the present research would reveal that forecasting method using ARIMA over the consumption of electricity in each domain would yield error values better than that of using ANFIS method. The, function transfer method would lead to each model for each domain so it can be inferred that numbers of customers would affect forecasting over consumptions of electricity in each domain.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.536 Aza p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ANFIS, ARIMA, Fungsi Transfer, Peramalan, Konsumsi Listrik, Jumlah Pelanggan Listrik.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Users 13 not found.
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2017 06:34
Last Modified: 26 Dec 2018 06:43
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/41600

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