Peramalan Nilai Impor Non Migas Di Jawa Timur Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins

Akbar, Bobby (2017) Peramalan Nilai Impor Non Migas Di Jawa Timur Dengan Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Impor Indonesia masih didominasi oleh impor non migas. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawa Timur terus menunjukkan proyeksi positif, dalam perkembangannya Jawa Timur menduduki peringkat tertinggi dan terbesar di Pulau Jawa khususnya dan Indonesia Timur umumnya. Impor non migas Provinsi Jawa Timur berasal dari 10 kelompok barang yaitu perhiasan/permata, besi dan baja, mesin-mesin/peralatan mekanik, bungkil industri makanan, plastik dan barang dari plastik, mesin/peralatan listrik, gandum-ganduman, bahan kimia organik, pupuk, dan buah-buahan. Selama April 2013 impor non migas Jatim didominasi oleh mesin dan pesawat mekanik diikuti besi dan baja, gandum, plastik barang dari plastik serta pupuk total semuanya 731,72 juta dollar AS. Oleh karena itu Provinsi Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu daerah yang mempunyai pengaruh terhadap nilai impor yang ada dalam negeri. Sehingga dalam penelitian ini ingin mengetahui peramalan nilai impor non migas di Provinsi Jawa Timur dengan menggunakan metode Arima Box-Jenkins untuk meramalkan periode kedepan. Metode tersebut sangat cocok dalam melihat fluktuatif data sebelumnya untuk meramalkan di periode mendatang dengan melihat pola yang ada di periode-periode sebelumnya. Model terbaik impor non migas yaitu ARIMA (0,1,1) dengan akurasi model AIC sebesar 1268,972, SBC sebesar 1270,822, RMSE sebesar 196947,7635, dan sMAPE sebesar 0,1146. Impor non migas mengalami kenaikan dari tahun sebelumnya sebesar 595847,01 ribu US $. ================================================================================================================== Indonesia's imports are still dominated by non-oil imports. East Java's economic growth continues show positive trend, East Java is rank highest in economic growth in Java Island in particular and East Indonesia in general. The import of non-oil and gas from East Java consist of 10 groups of goods, such of jewelry / gems, iron and steel, mechanical machinery / equipment, food industry cakes, plastics and plastic goods, electrical machinery / appliances, grains, organic chemicals, Fertilizers, and fruits. During April 2013, non-oil and gas imports from East Java were dominated by machineries and mechanical airplanes followed by iron and steel, wheat, plastic goods from plastics and total fertilizer were 731.72 million US dollars. Therefore, East Java Province is one area that has an influence on the value of imports in the country. So in this study wanted to know the forecasting value of non-oil imports in East Java Province by using Arima Box-Jenkins method to predict the future period. The method is particularly suitable in viewing the fluctuations of previous data to predict in future periods by looking at patterns that existed in previous periods. The best non- oil import model is ARIMA (0,1,1) with AIC model accuracy of 1268,972, SBC of 1270,822, RMSE of 196947,7635, and sMAPE of 0,1146. Non-oil imports increased from the previous year of 595847,01 thousand US $.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Arima Box-Jenkins, Impor Non Migas, Jawa Timur, The Non-Oil Imports, East Java
Subjects: T Technology > TX Home economics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (D3) Diploma
Depositing User: BOBBY AKBAR
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2017 06:45
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2017 06:45
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/41795

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