Atrivi, Pratiwi Penta (2017) Peramalan Jumlah Penerimaan Masa PPh Pasal 21 Di Kantor Pelayanan Pajak Pratama Surabaya Gubeng. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Indonesia dapat diiabaratkan sebagai sebuah rumah tangga yang besar, dalam memenuhi seluruh pembiayaan pengeluaran kebutuhan pastilah membutuhkan banyak dana. Indonesia menggali pendapatan negara yang dimilikinya, agar penyelenggaraan kepentingan umum dapat berjalan dengan baik. Sektor pajak merupakan sektor penerimaan yang paling potensial karena 70% penerimaan negara berasal dari pajak. Menurut Direktorat Jendral Pajak target penerimaan pajak yang dianggarkan oleh APBN sebagian besar pencapaian targetnya didominasi oleh sektor PPh. Dimana dalam pajak penghasilan tersebut terdapat pajak penghasilan pasal 21. Namun dengan diterapkannya sistem perpajakan self ascesment di Indonesia memungkinkan kurang disiplinnya para wajib pajak dalam melaporkan SPT. Salah satu kota yang memiliki rata-rata rasio pajak tertinggi di Indonesia adalah Surabaya. Di Surabaya terdiri dari 13 kantor pelayanan pajak salah satunya adalah Kantor Pelayanan Pajak Pratama Surabaya Gubeng. Jumlah realisasi penerimaan pajak penghasilan (PPh) pasal 21 mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan serta di beberapa tahun jumlah penerimaannya tidak mencapai target penerimaan pajak yang telah ditetapkan oleh Direktorat Jenderal Pajak. Metode yang dapat digunakan dalam perhitungan jumlah penerimaan masa PPh pasal 21 adalah peramalan dengan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data jumlah penerimaan masa PPh Pasal 21 bulan Januari tahun 2012 sampai Desember 2016. Model terbaik yang diperoleh adalah ARIMA (0,1,[12]). Nilai peramalan tertinggi diperkirakan terjadi pada bulan Desember 2017 dan terendah pada bulan Maret 2017.
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Indonesia can be regarded as a large household, in fulfilling all the financing needs of spending would require a lot of funds. Indonesia is exploring the state revenue it has, so the implementation of the public interest can run well. The tax sector is the most potential revenue sector because 70% of state revenue comes from taxes. According to the Directorate General of Taxation, the target of tax revenues budgeted by the state budget most of the achievement of its target is dominated by the PPh sector. Where in the income tax there is income tax article 21. However, with the implementation of the self-assessment tax system in Indonesia allows less taxpayer discipline in reporting tax returns. One of the cities with the highest tax ratio in Indonesia is Surabaya. In Surabaya consist of 13 service offices of tax one of them is Tax Service Office Pratama Surabaya Gubeng. The amount of realization of income tax revenues (PPh) article 21 has increased and decreased as well as in several years the amount of income does not reach the target of tax revenue that has been determined by the Directorate General of Taxes. The method that can be used in calculating the amount of receipt of Income Tax Article 21 is forecasting by ARIMA Box-Jenkins method. The data used in this study is the data on the amount of income during the period of Article 21 in January 2012 until December 2016. The best model obtained is ARIMA (0,1,[12]). The highest forecasting value is expected to occur in December 2017 and the lowest in March 2017.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.535 Atr p-1 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA, Forecasting, PPh Article 21 |
| Subjects: | Q Science Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278 Cluster Analysis. Multivariate analysis. Correspondence analysis (Statistics) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3 |
| Depositing User: | Pratiwi Penta Atrivi |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Oct 2017 06:29 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Mar 2019 02:32 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/42054 |
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