VALUATING INDONESIAN UPSTREAM OIL MANAGEMENT SCENARIO THROUGH SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING

Putri, Fariza Aulia (2017) VALUATING INDONESIAN UPSTREAM OIL MANAGEMENT SCENARIO THROUGH SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Dibawah regulasi UU Nomor 22 Tahun 2001, Production Sharing Contract (PSC) tetap menjadi skenario dalam pengelolaan sektor hulu minyak bumi dan gas seperti yang terdapat pada UU Nomor 8 Tahun 1971. Tingginya biaya yang diperlukan dalam melakukan aktivitas hulu minyak dan gas serta tingginya risiko yang ada, kontraktor didominasi oleh perusahaan – perusahaan asing, sedangkan perusahaan minyak nasional (NOC) tidak melakukan banyak aktivitas di sektor ini. Dominasi kontraktor asing menyebabkan Indonesia rentan terhadap isu – isu kemandirian energi dan ketahanan energi. Oleh karena itu, untuk mencapai tujuan kemandirian energi dan ketahanan energi, perlu adanya perbaikan terhadap skenario tata kelola hulu minyak. Dalam penelitian ini, akan dibandingkan skenario saat ini yaitu PSC dengan skenario konsesi bagi NOC untuk pengelolaan sektor hulu minyak. Kedua skenario akan dimodelkan dengan pendekatan Sistem Dinamik dan akan dinilai dengan metode valuasi menggunakan pendekatan pendapatan. Dari kedua skenario, akan dipilih skenario yang lebih baik untuk mencapai tujuan tata kelola hulu minyak. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa skenario konsesi menawarkan sistem tata kelola yang lebih baik dibandingkan PSC dalam mencapai kemandirian energi dan ketahanan energi. ====================================================================== Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Upstream Oil Management; Energy Independence; Energy Security; System Dynamics Methodology; and Financial Valuation
Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Fariza Aulia Putri
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2018 02:57
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2019 06:24
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/45884

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