Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Ditinjau dari Penyaluran Kredit Perbankan Kepada Sektor Prioritas Ekonomi Pemerintah tiap Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Hierarki Bayesian

Yasmirullah, Septia Devi Prihastuti (2017) Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Ditinjau dari Penyaluran Kredit Perbankan Kepada Sektor Prioritas Ekonomi Pemerintah tiap Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Hierarki Bayesian. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi di suatu wilayah diukur melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi. Semenjak Undang-Undang No.32 tahun 2004 diberlakukan ketimpangan pertumbuhan ekonomi antar wilayah kabupaten/kota di Indonesia semakin tinggi. Hal ini bersimpangan dengan tujuan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat melalui peningkatan aktivitas perekonomian di daerah. Oleh sebab itu penelitian ini mengkaji tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau dari penyaluran kredit perbankan tiap kabupaten/kota di Indonesia. Data yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini merupakan data berstruktur hierarki dengan pola distribusi data yang mengikuti distribusi normal. Estimasi parameter model menggunakan metode Bayesian satu tingkat dan metode hierarki Bayesian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan pemodelan menggunakan metode Hierarki Bayesian lebih baik dibandingkan metode Bayesian satu tingkat, hal ini dapat diketahui melalui nilai DIC. Pada model Hierarki Bayesian variasi koefisien regresi mikro antar provinsi terbukti secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik kabupaten/kota dan karakteristik provinsi. Jadi model hierarki Bayesian terbukti dapat menggambarkan pengaruh prediktor pada tingkatan berbeda terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota di Indonesia. ============================================================================================= Economic establishment success in a region is measured by economic growth. Since the Act No. 32 of 2004 has been implemented, unbalance economic among the regency in Indonesia is increasing. This condition is contrary different with the government goal to build society welfare through the economic activity development in each region. This research aims to examine economic growth trough the distribution of bank credits to each Indonesia's regency. The data analysed in this research is hierarchical structured data with distribution pattern following normal distribution. Data distributional model represents the character of economic growth pattern in each province. It shows special features within the result. One level Bayesian method and Hierarchical Bayesian method are used to estimate model parameters. The result of Hierarchical Bayesian method shows better estimation than one level Bayesian method in the terms of its DIC. The variation of micro level regression coefficient in each province significantly affected by cities and province characteristics. Therefore the hierarchical model with Bayesian approach is proven to show predictor effect in different level to economic growth in regency of Indonesia.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.542 Yas p
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian, DIC, hierarki, pertumbuhan ekonomi, economic growth, hierarchical
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Septia Devi Prihastuti Yasmirullah
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2017 04:34
Last Modified: 06 Nov 2017 04:34
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/47813

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