Almuhayar, Mawanda (2017) Pengaruh Indikator Makro Ekonomi dan Bencana Alam terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera Menggunakan Pendekatan Regresi Spasial Data Panel. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang rawan bencana di dunia. Hasil riset pengurangan resiko bencana oleh Perserikatan Bangsa Bangsa (PBB) menyebutkan Indonesia berada pada urutan pertama sebagai negara rawan tsunami dan tanah longsor di dunia, peringkat ketiga dalam bencana gempa bumi, serta urutan keenam untuk banjir. Negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia kehilangan 5 dari Produk Nasional Bruto setiap tahunnya akibat bencana alam karena kejadian bencana alam dapat menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bisa berakibat pada kerugian finansial. Oleh karena itu, pada penelitian ini dilakukan pemodelan pertumbuhan ekonomi menggunakan regresi spasial data panel untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh, pengaruh bencana alam, beserta pengaruh spasial atau wilayah dengan sampel yang digunakan yaitu provinsi di Pulau Sumatera dan rentang tahun 2010-2015. Hasil yang diperoleh yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera yang digambarkan dari PDRB setiap provinsi di Pulau Sumatera naik setiap tahunnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Pulau Sumatera dipengaruhi secara positif oleh penanaman modal asing, penanaman modal dalam negeri, dan secara negatif oleh kejadian bencana, sedangkan nilai ekspor tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Selain itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu wilayah juga dipengaruhi oleh wilayah lain yang berdekatan dengan nilai koefisien korelasi spasial sebesar 0,5752.
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Indonesia is one of the most vulnerable country to natural disaster in the world. The research about disaster risk reduction by the United Nations (UN) also states that Indonesia is ranked the first place as vulnerable country in the world to tsunami and landslide, ranked third place in the earthquake disaster, and ranked sixth place in the flood disaster. The developing country, including Indonesia lost 5 of Gross National Product annually due to natural disaster, because the natural disaster events can slow down the economic growth that impact to financial losses. Therefore, in this research purpose to obtain the model of economic growth using spatial panel data regression to find out the influencing factors, the effect of natural disaster, and spatial dependence effect that affect the economic growth with the sample used is province in Sumatera Island and year range 2010-2015. The results obtained are economic growth in Sumatera Island that depicted from the GDP of each province are increase from year to year. Economic growth in Sumatera Island is positively influenced by foreign investment, domestic investment, and negatively influenced by the events of natural disaster, while export value has no significant effect to the economic growth. Furthermore, the economic growth in a region also influenced by the other neighborhood region with spatial correlation coefficient amount 0,5752.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.536 Alm p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Korelasi spasial, data panel, bencana alam, pertumbuhan ekonomi, Spatial correlation, panel data, natural disaster, economic growth |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mawanda Almuhayar |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Oct 2017 01:59 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Mar 2019 03:32 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/48594 |
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