Peramalan Langsung dan Tidak Langsung Market Share Daihatsu Menggunakan ARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender

Titi, Dea Astri Parayuan (2018) Peramalan Langsung dan Tidak Langsung Market Share Daihatsu Menggunakan ARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Berdasarkan data BPS sektor industri transportasi menyumbangkan 8,01% pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Pesatnya pertumbuhan industri transportasi juga diikuti dengan perkembangan industri otomotif di Indonesia. Agen Tunggal Pemegang Merek (ATPM) dari grup Astra Internasional meraih Market Share sebesar 57% pada April 2017. PT. Astra Daihatsu Motor yang merupakan salah satu anak perusahaannya, setiap tahun memiliki kenaikan penjualan sangat pesat mencapai 15% hingga Market Share Daihatsu naik menjadi 17,3%. Data dari Gabungan Industri kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo) menunjukkan tren kenaikan penjualan mobil sebulan sebelum Lebaran. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan Market Share secara langsung dan tidak langsung Daihatsu dan merek kompetitor menggunakan ARIMAX dengan efek variasi kalender yang terdiri dari efek tren, musiman bulanan dan efek Idul Fitri. Hasil yang diperoleh peramalan tidak langsung melalui peramalan penjualan mobil setiap merek dan total market menggunakan ARIMAX lebih bagus dan dapat mengikuti pola data out sample. Nilai SMAPE yang dihasilkan juga lebih kecil dibandingkan peramalan langsung dan peramalan tidak langsung menggunakan ARIMA.

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Based on the data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the transportation industry sector contributes to about 8.01% of Indonesia economic growth. The rapid growth of transportation industry also followed by automotive industry growth in Indonesia. The sole agent (ATPM) of Astra International group achieved Market Share of 57% in April 2017. PT. Astra Daihatsu Motor which is one of its subsidiaries, has huge sales increase of 15% each year until Daihatsu’s Market Share goes up to 17.3%. The data from Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) that showed car sales increases a month before Eid Fitri. This research examines, direct and indirect forecasting of Daihatsu Market Share as well as its brand competitors the forecast has been done using by ARIMAX with calendar variations effect consisting of trend effects, monthly seasonal and effects of Eid Fitri. The results showed that indirect forecasting of each brand of car sales and total market using ARIMAX is better than direct forecast with lowest degreeof bias toward out-sample data. The value of SMAPE generated by ARIMAX is also smaller than the direct forecasting and the indirect forecasting using ARIMA.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.535 Tit p
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Daihatsu, Langsung, Market Share dan Tidak Langsung.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Dea Astri Parayuan Titi
Date Deposited:	25 Sep 2020 03:14
Last Modified:	25 Sep 2020 03:32
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/50750

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