Scenario of LNG Distribution by Ships for Eastern Indonesia Using Discrete Event Simulation

Widodo, Ario Danurdoro (2018) Scenario of LNG Distribution by Ships for Eastern Indonesia Using Discrete Event Simulation. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia mengalami kekurangan suplai listrik, terutama di wilayah timur Indonesia. Rata-rata rasio elektrifikasi di Provinsi Papua, Papua Barat, Maluku, dan Maluku Utara adalah 76.93%, jauh di bawah rata-rata nasional 88.3%. Khususnya di Papua Barat, rasio elektrifikasi hanya 45.93%. Di sisi lain menurut RUPTL 2017-2026, permintaan listrik di Papua dan Papua Barat meningkat mendekati 10%. Pemerintah Republik Indonesia merencanakan pembangunan pembangkit listrik untuk memenuhi permintaan tersebut, sekaligus mengalokasikan gas alam dalam negeri untuk kebutuhan tersebut. Di Papua dan Papua Barat, sampai dengan 2022 akan dibangun 14 pembangkit yang menggunakan gas alam, dengan total kapasitas terpasang 210 MW. Skripsi ini mensimulasikan skenario untuk mensuplai pembangkit tersebut dengan LNG dari Tangguh LNG Plant selama lima tahun dengan peningkatan permintaan 55% per tahun. Armada yang digunakan dibatasi menggunakan small LNG carrier, dengan kapasitas kargo antara 2,500 m3 dan 23,000 m3. Terdapat 16 skenario distribusi LNG yang dimodelkan dengan simulasi kejadian diskrit. Variasi yang diterapkan pada skripsi ini adalah kapasitas fasilitas penerima, kombinasi kapal, dan sinyal perintah pengiriman LNG berdasarkan inventory level di terminal penerima. Terdapat empat rute, satu dari Tangguh Plant menuju hub lalu kembali, dan sisanya dari hub menuju titik-titik distribusi lalu kembali. Semua data dalam skripsi ini adalah deterministik. Tantangan dalam skripsi ini adalah mengemati inventory level pada terminal penerima yang harus melebihi safety stock di beberapa skenario, dengan penjadwalan pengiriman untuk ditentukan karena adanya dua titik yang didistribusi pada satu buah rute. Kemudian total biaya selama lima tahun dihitung pada tiap skenario, meliputi belanja modal dan belanja operasional. dari 16 skenario ditemukan terdapat tiga skenario yang dapat menjaga inventory level melebihi safety stock. =============== Indonesia is suffering lack of electricity supply, especially in eastern Indonesia. Average electrification ratio in Papua, Papua Barat, Maluku, and Maluku Utara is at 76.93%, below 88.3%. Especially in Papua Barat, the electrification ratio is at 45.93%. On the other hands according to RUPTL 2017-2026, demand of electricity in Papua and Papua Barat is increasing nearly 10%. Government of Republic Indonesia planned to build power plants in order to fulfill that demand, while allocating domestic natural gas to power them. In Papua and Papua Barat, until 2022 there will be 14 power plants which are fueled by natural gas, with total installed capacity 210 MW. This thesis is simulating scenario to supply these power plants with LNG from Tangguh LNG Plant for five years with increasing demand 5% annually. Transporter chosen in this thesis is limited to small LNG Carrier, with cargo capacity vary from 2,500 m3 to 23,000 m3. There are sixteen scenario of LNG distribution that modeled with discrete event simulation. Variations to be applied in this thesis are receiving terminal capacity, combination of ships, and signal to request LNG to be transported based on inventory level at receiving terminal. There are 4 routes, one from Tangguh Plant to distribution hub and return, and three remaining are from hub to destination point and return. All data in this thesis are considered deterministic. While challenge of this thesis is to observe inventory level at receiving terminal which has to exceed safety stock in several scenarios, with scheduling is difficult to determine due to 2 destination point in one route. Later total expenditure is calculated in each scenario, including capital expenditure and operational expenditure. Of these sixteen scenarios found that there are three scenarios that capable to maintain inventory level exceeding safety stock.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords: LNG; Power plants; Receiving terminal; Safety stock; Discrete event simulation
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK201 Electric Power Transmission
T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK1322.6 Electric power-plants
V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Marine Technology > Marine Engineering > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Ario Danurdoro Widodo
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2018 03:33
Last Modified: 19 Apr 2018 03:33
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/50941

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