Hidayat, Rahmawati Maisaroh (2015) Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kriminalitas Pencurian Motor Di Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Provinsi Jawa Timur, menurut reka mabes Polri tahun
2014 diketahuitindak kriminalitas tertinggi terjadi di wilayah
hukum Polda Jawa Timur (Jatim) yakni Jatim 39 (kejadian),
Jateng 16, Polda Metro 14, Polda Sulsel 10, dan Polda Bali 11.
Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik mengenai jumlah
kejahatan yang terjadi pada tahun 2014, pencurian motor
menduduki urutan pertama jumlah kejahatan yang paling banyak
terjadi. Penelitian ini menggunakan lima variabel yang diduga
mempengaruhi kriminalitas “Pencurian Motor”. Data yang
digunakan adalah data pada tahun 2013 yang diambil di BPS
Jatim. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kriminalitas
“Pencurian Motor”, memiliki pola tertentu (nonparametrik)
sehingga pemodelan terbaik adalah regresi nonparametrik.
dengan pendekatan spline dengan titik knot optimum didapatkan
dengan metode Generalized Cross Validation (GCV).
Berdasarkan hasil analisis didapatkan variabel yang signifikan
terhadap model yakni variabel kepadatan penduduk, angka
partisipasi kasar (APK) SMA, persentase penduduk miskin,
jumlah pengangguran dan luas geografis. Model regresi spline
tersebut menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 97,28%.
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East Java province, according to the National Police
headquarters in 2014 they are known criminality occurred in the
jurisdiction in East Java Police (East Java) Java ie 39 (events),
Central 16, Police 14, South Sulawesi Police 10, and 11.
According to the Bali Police Agency Central Bureau of Statistics
on the number of criminalitys that occurred in 2014, motorcycle
theft ranked first number of the most common criminalitys. This
study uses five variables suspected to affect criminality "Theft of
Motorcycle". The data used is data in 2013 were taken in East
Java BPS. Factors that influence criminality "Theft Motorcycle",
has a specific pattern (nonparametric) so that the best modeling
for criminality "Theft Motorcycle" is a nonparametric regression.
with using spline with knots optimum point obtained by the
method of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the
analysis we found significant variables to the model that the
population density variable, gross enrollment rate (GER) SMA,
the percentage of poor, the number of unemployed and
geographical area. The spline regression models yield
determination coefficient of 97.28%.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.536 Hid p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | GCV, Kriminalitas, Pencurian Motor, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik, Spline, GCV, Criminality, Theft Motorcycle, East Java Province, Regression Nonparametric, Spline |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3 |
| Depositing User: | ansi aflacha |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Mar 2018 08:23 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Aug 2018 03:09 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51628 |
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