Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) Untuk Pemodelan Mixture Survival (Studi Kasus: Lama Pernikahan Para Pihak Yang Mendaftarkan Gugatan Perceraian Di Pengadilan Agama Kabupaten Malang Tahun 2014) = Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) For Modelling Mixture Survival (Case Studies: Long Marriage of The Parties that Registers a Lawsuit Divorces in The Religious Court Kabupaten Malang Year 2014)

Rejki, Najihatur (2015) Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) Untuk Pemodelan Mixture Survival (Studi Kasus: Lama Pernikahan Para Pihak Yang Mendaftarkan Gugatan Perceraian Di Pengadilan Agama Kabupaten Malang Tahun 2014) = Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) For Modelling Mixture Survival (Case Studies: Long Marriage of The Parties that Registers a Lawsuit Divorces in The Religious Court Kabupaten Malang Year 2014). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

[img]
Preview
Text
Master-Thesis.pdf - Published Version

Download (5MB) | Preview

Abstract

Analisis survival merupakan metode statistika yang tepat untuk menganalisis data waktu tempuh suatu objek sampai terjadinya suatu peristiwa atau kejadian tertentu terhadap objek tersebut. Banyaknya kasus perceraian di Pengadilan Agama (PA) merupakan masalah yang cukup mengkhawatirkan di masyarakat, pengamatan tentang lama suatu pernikahan dapat dipertahankan merupakan fenomena survival ini. Pengamatan dilakukan pada para pihak yang mendaftarkan gugatan perceraiannya di PA Kabupaten Malang, sebagai unit penelitian. Penelitian ini mendemonstrasikan kemampuan pemodelan mixture survival dalam suatu cox proportional hazard yang dipadukan dengan cara estimasi parameternya menggunakan perpaduan antara Bayesian dan metode reversible jump markov chain monte carlo (RJMCMC) pada data survival yang mempunyai pola multimodal. RJMCMC dapat membantu memodelkan permasalahan mixture secara bersamaan dengan penentuan banyaknya komponen penyusunan mixture yang optimal. Hasil pemodelan dan analisis menunjukkan bahwa model survival pernikahan di area PA Kabupaten Malang berdasarkan regresi cox proportional hazard dipengaruhi oleh faktor umur penggugat dan tergugat, pendidikan penggugat dan tergugat, pekerjaan penggugat dan tergugat, jumlah anak, dan alasan perceraian. Sedangkan berdasarkan pemodelan mixture regresi survival terdiri atas 4 komponen mixture dengan faktor yang mempengaruhi berbeda-beda sesuai dengan komponen mixture-nya. ======================================================================================================================== Survival analysis is a statistical method that is appropriate to analyze the data takes about an object until the occurrence of a certain event or events of the object. The number of divorce cases in the Religious Court is an alarming problem in the community, the old observation about a marriage can be maintained this is a survival phenomenon. Observations were made on the parties who filed a divorce in Religious Court Malang, a research unit. This study demonstrates mixture modeling capabilities survival in a cox proportional hazards combined with the parameter estimation method using a combination of Bayesian and methods of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) on survival data having a multimodal pattern. RJMCMC can help model the problems mixture simultaneously with the determination of the number of components of the optimal mixture preparation. Modeling and analysis of the results showed that the survival model of marriage in the Religious Court area Malang by Cox proportional hazards regression was influenced by the plaintiff and the defendant's age, education plaintiff and the defendant, the plaintiff and the defendant's occupation, number of children, and the reason for the divorce. While based on survival regression modeling mixture consists of four components mixture with factors affecting vary in accordance with its mixture components.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information: RTSt 519.542 Rej b
Uncontrolled Keywords: Analisis Survival, Cox Proportional Hazard, Lama Pernikahan, Mixture Regresi, Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), Age of Marriage, Cox Proportional Hazard, Mixture Regression, Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), Survival Analysis
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.7 Markov processes--Mathematical models.
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S2) Master Theses
Depositing User: ansi aflacha
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2018 03:48
Last Modified: 24 Aug 2018 06:32
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51632

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item