Penerapan Persamaan Simultan Spasial untuk Pemodelan Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Timur

., Hadiyanto (2015) Penerapan Persamaan Simultan Spasial untuk Pemodelan Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Provinsi Jawa Timur memiliki kontribusi yang besar dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Provinsi ini memiliki peranan ke dua terbesar, setelah DKI Jakarta, dalam hal pembentukan PDB Nasional. Selain itu Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) nya selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya dan pertumbuhan PDRB provinsi ini merupakan yang kedua terbesar setelah DKI Jakarta. Di sisi lain, kemiskinan Jawa Timur juga terus mengalami penurunan namun masih ada beberapa daerah tertinggal yang menjadi kantong kemiskinan di Jawa Timur. Gambaran ini menunjukkan perlunya kajian dimensi sosial dan ekonomi mengenai keterkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, persentase penduduk miskin, Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan,Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan, distribusi pendapatan, dan output pendapatan Provinsi Jawa Timur yang diwakili oleh PDRB Sektor Pertanian dan PDRB Sektor Non Pertanian. Kajian yang kompleks ini menggunakan model persamaan simultan spasial dengan prosedur generalized spatial two stage least squares (GS2SLS) sehingga tidak hanya aspek keterkaitan antara variabel sosial maupun ekonomi dapat tergambar dalam persamaan simultan, tetapi juga ada efek spasial yang menggambarkan pola interaksi variabel tersebut antar kabupaten/kota yang ada di Jawa Timur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemodelan GS2SLS dengan bobot Customized lebih baik dibandingkan pemodelan dengan bobot Rook Continguity. Angka Melek Huruf dan rata-rata lama sekolah berpengaruh signifikan dalam pengentasan kemiskinan. PDRB non pertanian secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan asli daerah dan rata-rata lama sekolah, sedangkan PDRB pertanian dipengaruhi oleh jumlah tenaga kerja pertanian dan pengeluaran pemerintah daerah. Selain itu terdapat hubungan spasial pada beberapa variabel kemiskinan yaitu Gini Ratio, Angka Kemiskinan, Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan, Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan, PDRB non pertanian, dan tenaga kerja pertanian. ============================================================================================= Jawa Timur Province has a great contribution in Indonesian economy. This province has a role to the second largest, after Jakarta, in terms of the formation of the National GDP. In addition, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) of Jawa Timur is increasing every year and the growth of the province's GDP was the second largest after Jakarta. On the other hand, poverty of Jawa Timur also continued to decline, but some areas still lagged as windows of poverty in Jawa Timur. This condition show that the study of social and economic dimensions about the relationship between economic growth, poverty rate, Poverty Gap Index, Poverty Severity Index, income distribution, income and output of Jawa Timur Province (represented by GDP of agricultural and non-agricultural Sector) is needed to be done. This complex study is using a spatial model of simultaneous equations with generalized spatial two stage least squares (GS2SLS) procedure, so not only the aspect of the relationship between social and economic variables can be illustrated by the simultaneous equations, but there is also a spatial effect which describes the pattern of interaction of these variables between regencies/cities in Jawa Timur. The results showed that GS2SLS model with Customized weight is better than GS2SLS model with Rook Continguity weight. Literacy Rate and mean years of schooling have a significant effect on poverty reduction. Non-agricultural GDP is significantly influenced by local revenues and the mean years of schooling, while agricultural GDP is influenced by a number of agricultural labor and local government expenditure. In addition, there is a spatial relationship on several variables, namely the Gini Ratio, Poverty rate, Poverty Gap Index, Poverty Severity Index, non-agricultural GDP, and agricultural labor.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information: RTSt 519.53 Had p
Uncontrolled Keywords: generalized spatial two stage least squares, poverty, spatial simultaneous equation, kemiskinan, persamaan simultan spasial
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S2) Master Theses
Depositing User: Eny Widiastuti -
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2018 09:26
Last Modified: 11 Apr 2018 09:26
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51733

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