Nur ‘Anisa’, Kartika (2015) Analisis Hubungan Curah Hujan Dan Indikator El-Nino Southern Oscillation Di Sentra Produksi Padi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Copula. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Technology Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Analisis korelasi digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi pola
hubungan antar variabel dengan asumsi data normal. Asumsi
normal sering terlanggar jika terdapat amatan ekstrim dan salah
satunya sering dijumpai pada data iklim, seperti curah hujan.
Informasi curah hujan digunakan pada sektor pertanian sebagai
informasi penentuan awal tanam dan selanjutnya sebagai
peringatan dini kegagalan panen khususnya di wilayah irigasi
non teknis (tadah hujan). Keragaman curah hujan di Indonesia
seringkali dipengaruhi fenomena di Lautan Pasifik, yaitu El-Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oleh karena itu dilakukan
identifikasi hubungan antara curah hujan dan indikator ENSO di
sentra produksi padi di Jawa Timur, yaitu: Banyuwangi, Jember,
Bojonegoro, Lamongan, dan Ngawi. Metode yang digunakan
adalah dengan pendekatan Copula, karena pola hubungan curah
hujan dan ENSO di lima kabupaten tidak mengikuti distribusi
normal. Selain itu, analisis korelasi klasik tidak dapat
mengidentifikasi pola hubungan keduanya. Hasil penelitian
menunjukkan struktur dependensi antara curah hujan dan
Anomali SST Nino 3 di lima kabupaten sebagian besar mengikuti
Copula Frank. Sementara itu, struktur dependensi antara curah
hujan dan Anomali SST Nino 4 serta SST Nino 3.4 mengikuti
Copula Clayton, sedangkan dengan Anomali SST Nino 1+2 tidak
mengikuti Copula apapun. Kesimpulan lain diperoleh bahwa
kejadian ENSO pada bulan tertentu berpengaruh terhadap curah
hujan di lima kabupaten Jawa Timur satu bulan berikutnya.
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Correlation analysis is used to identify pattern of relationship
among variables with normal distributed assumption. Normal
assumption is often violated if there are extreme observations and
one of them is common in climate data, such as rainfall. Rainfall
information is used in agricultural sector as information on the
determination to start planting and as early warning information
of crop failures, especially in the area of non-technical irrigation
(rain water). Variability of rainfall in Indonesia is often
influenced by the phenomenon in Pacific Ocean, that is El-Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, it is carried out the
identification of relationship between rainfall and ENSO
indicator in rice production center in East Java, e.g. :
Banyuwangi, Jember, Bojonegoro, Lamongan, and Ngawi.
Copula method is used because pattern of relationship between
rainfall and ENSO in five districts does not follow normal
distribution. Besides, classic correlation analysis can not identify
the pattern of both relationship. The result of the identification
shows that most of the relationships in five districts of East Java
with SST Nino Anomaly 3 follow Frank Copula. Dependency
structures between rainfall with SST Nino Anomaly 4 and SST
Nino Anomaly 3.4 follow Clayton Copula, while SST Nino
Anomaly 1 + 2 does not follow any Copula. The other conclusion
is ENSO events in the certain month will affect rainfall in five
districts of East Java after one month later.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.544 Ani a |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Anomali SST, Copula, ENSO, Iklim Ekstrim |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata |
| Date Deposited: | 30 May 2018 03:51 |
| Last Modified: | 30 May 2018 03:51 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51953 |
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