Analisis Hubungan Curah Hujan Dan Indikator El-Nino Southern Oscillation Di Sentra Produksi Padi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Copula

Nur ‘Anisa’, Kartika (2015) Analisis Hubungan Curah Hujan Dan Indikator El-Nino Southern Oscillation Di Sentra Produksi Padi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Copula. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Technology Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Analisis korelasi digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi pola hubungan antar variabel dengan asumsi data normal. Asumsi normal sering terlanggar jika terdapat amatan ekstrim dan salah satunya sering dijumpai pada data iklim, seperti curah hujan. Informasi curah hujan digunakan pada sektor pertanian sebagai informasi penentuan awal tanam dan selanjutnya sebagai peringatan dini kegagalan panen khususnya di wilayah irigasi non teknis (tadah hujan). Keragaman curah hujan di Indonesia seringkali dipengaruhi fenomena di Lautan Pasifik, yaitu El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oleh karena itu dilakukan identifikasi hubungan antara curah hujan dan indikator ENSO di sentra produksi padi di Jawa Timur, yaitu: Banyuwangi, Jember, Bojonegoro, Lamongan, dan Ngawi. Metode yang digunakan adalah dengan pendekatan Copula, karena pola hubungan curah hujan dan ENSO di lima kabupaten tidak mengikuti distribusi normal. Selain itu, analisis korelasi klasik tidak dapat mengidentifikasi pola hubungan keduanya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan struktur dependensi antara curah hujan dan Anomali SST Nino 3 di lima kabupaten sebagian besar mengikuti Copula Frank. Sementara itu, struktur dependensi antara curah hujan dan Anomali SST Nino 4 serta SST Nino 3.4 mengikuti Copula Clayton, sedangkan dengan Anomali SST Nino 1+2 tidak mengikuti Copula apapun. Kesimpulan lain diperoleh bahwa kejadian ENSO pada bulan tertentu berpengaruh terhadap curah hujan di lima kabupaten Jawa Timur satu bulan berikutnya. ====================================================================================================== Correlation analysis is used to identify pattern of relationship among variables with normal distributed assumption. Normal assumption is often violated if there are extreme observations and one of them is common in climate data, such as rainfall. Rainfall information is used in agricultural sector as information on the determination to start planting and as early warning information of crop failures, especially in the area of non-technical irrigation (rain water). Variability of rainfall in Indonesia is often influenced by the phenomenon in Pacific Ocean, that is El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, it is carried out the identification of relationship between rainfall and ENSO indicator in rice production center in East Java, e.g. : Banyuwangi, Jember, Bojonegoro, Lamongan, and Ngawi. Copula method is used because pattern of relationship between rainfall and ENSO in five districts does not follow normal distribution. Besides, classic correlation analysis can not identify the pattern of both relationship. The result of the identification shows that most of the relationships in five districts of East Java with SST Nino Anomaly 3 follow Frank Copula. Dependency structures between rainfall with SST Nino Anomaly 4 and SST Nino Anomaly 3.4 follow Clayton Copula, while SST Nino Anomaly 1 + 2 does not follow any Copula. The other conclusion is ENSO events in the certain month will affect rainfall in five districts of East Java after one month later.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.544 Ani a
Uncontrolled Keywords: Anomali SST, Copula, ENSO, Iklim Ekstrim
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited: 30 May 2018 03:51
Last Modified: 30 May 2018 03:51
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51953

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