Putri, Dian Safrina (2015) Studi Konvergensi Ageing (Penuaan) Di Negara-Negara Mediterania. Masters thesis, Institut Technology Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
The ageing phenomenon became a much-discussed issue in demographic research lately. This study focuses on ageing in the area of Western Europe, especially in the Mediterranean countries. It is a well established that people leave Northern Europe and other region, making Southern Europe as a destination for living. So this contributes to the greater presence of “old” people in Mediterranean countries. We want to explore whether there is a convergence of ageing in the Mediterranean countries. One of convergence approach is σ convergence. This approach views convergence as the reduction of the standard deviation in each period.
In this study, we aim at investigating territorial’s ageing behaviors over certain period in order to identify the convergence of ageing. To measure the ageing in a territory, we adopt a common indicator of ageing: the proportion of people aged 65 years and over. We study the ageing behavior of four Mediterranean countries: Italy, France, Spain and Portugal that are divided into geographical unit (in France we recognize this geographical unit as department) over three periods in 1990, 2000 and 2010. For that task, we apply several statistical methods, among those classification, Markov chain approach, regression model, and spatial statistics.
Classification method allows us obtaining five groups of territories with similar ageing behavior over time. A characterization of ageing trajectories within groups is given by determination of territories condition over time (young, rather young, moderate, rather old and old). We find that the median of each trajectories group increases over period, so they are heading to ageing.
A modeling by Markov chain allows us to describe ageing trajectories using five states obtained earlier. This approach confirmed that all states have the bigger probability going older. In the long run, Markov chain approach predicts that there will be no territory in the young state and almost all territories studied will tend to be in old state.
Regression methods leads to the same conclusion as above. Moreover, we observe that territories and their neighbors are becoming increasingly similar over time. So we can conclude that there is convergence of ageing in the Mediterranean based on this model.
To improve this study, it would be better add the series of data in order not to lead to inaccurate conclusion. We can also apply other methods e.g. continuous-time Markov chain, space-time dynamic Markov chain, and generalized equation estimation model.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTSt 362.67 Put s |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Ageing, Mediterranean Countries, Convergence, Markov Chain |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Jun 2018 01:43 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Jun 2018 02:32 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/51975 |
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