Muhlishatin, Ita Ayu Mayasari (2018) Analisis Pemilihan Alternatif Keputusan Investasi pada Sistem Kelistrikan Pulau Kalimantan Tahun 2017-2050 dengan Menggunakan Proses Stokastik (Studi Kasus Pada PT PLN). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang disertai dengan pertumbuhan penduduk tentunya harus ditunjang dengan peningkatan infrastruktur. PT PLN (Persero) menyadari akan adanya peningkatan kebutuhan listrik di masa mendatang, salah satunya di Pulau Kalimantan. Melalui Program Pembangunan Ketenagalistrikan 35.000 MW, PT PLN merencanakan untuk membangun beberapa pembangkit listrik di Kalimantan untuk meningkatkan rasio elektrifikasi. Saat ini, Pulau Kalimantan terbagi menjadi tiga area, diantaranya Area 1 (Khatulistiwa), Area 2 (Barito), serta Area 3 (Mahakam). Dalam perencanaan pembangkit listrik, terdapat beberapa alternatif keputusan yang diajukan, yaitu alternatif regional balance, interkoneksi Area 1-2, interkoneksi Area 2-3, dan interkoneksi Area 1-2-3. Penelitian ini akan menganalisis pemilihan alternatif keputusan investasi sistem kelistrikan di Pulau Kalimantan tahun 2017-2050. Pemodelan skenario stokastik juga digunakan untuk memodelkan kondisi pemadaman, sehingga variabel yang digunakan terdiri atas ketidaktersediaan power lines dan beban listrik. Berdasarkan hasil analisis kelayakan untuk setiap alternatif skenario menggunakan NPV, IRR, dan payback period, didapatkan bahwa keempat alternatif skenario dinyatakan layak. Berdasarkan hasil incremental analysis didapatkan bahwa alternatif satu atau skenario regional balance menjadi alternatif terbaik karena memiliki biaya investasi terkecil, sekitar Rp 15.755.990.162.277,00. Berdasarkan simulasi monte carlo, ditunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan pada nilai LEI, sehingga pemilihan alternatif keputusan sebaiknya tetap dilakukan berdasarkan incremental analysis.
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Economic growth of Indonesia that followed by increasing number of population surely need to be supported by better infrastructure. PT PLN (Persero) realized that will be an increasing electricity demand in the future, one of them on Pulau Kalimantan. Through Electricity Construction Program 35.000 MW, PT PLN (Persero) has planned to build many power plants in Kalimantan to increase the electrification ratio. Nowadays, Pulau Kalimantan is divided into three areas, namely Area 1 (Khatulistiwa), Area 2 (Barito), and Area 3 (Mahakam). There are several alternatives to build power stations in Kalimantan, that are the regional balance, Area 1-2 interconnection, Area 2-3 interconnection, and Area 1-2-3 interconnection. This final project analyze the selection of investment decision alternatives in the Kalimantan electricity system in 2017-2050. Stochastic modeling is also used to model the outage conditions. The variable used are power lines outage and electrical loads variation. Based on the result of the feasibility analysis for each alternative using NPV, IRR, and payback period obtained that the four alternative scenario is declared viable. Based one the incremental analysis, obtained that first alternative (regional balance) becomes the best alternative because it has the smallest investment cost, approximately Rp 15.755.990.162.277,00. Based on monte carlo simulation, indicated that there was no significant difference in the value of LEI, so the selection of investment decisions should be done on the basis of incremental analysis.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSI 658.403 Muh a-1 2018 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | investasi, analisis kelayakan, incremental analysis, proses stokastik |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.23 Decision making. Business requirements analysis. H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4910 Investments T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Ita Ayu Mayasari Muhlishatin |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Dec 2021 02:31 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Dec 2021 02:41 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/52190 |
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