Fauzi, Dedi Mariadi (2018) Analisa Risiko Bisnis Penyaluran Minyak Bumi Pada Pipa Tempino-Plaju PT Pertamina Gas Menggunakan Metode Montecarlo. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area (PTG CSA) merupakan salah satu area operasi dari PT Pertamina Gas yang berperan penting dalam penyaluran minyak mentah dari SPPP Tempino di wilayah Jambi hingga km 03 Sei Gerong di wilayah Palembang, dengan panjang pipa sepanjang +265 km dan diameter pipa 8 inchi. Dari data penyaluran PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area, volume penyaluran minyak bumi melalui pipa Tempino-Plaju terus mengalami penurunan sampai sekarang. kecenderungan penurunan volume penyaluran ini disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor risiko bisnis yang dapat menyebabkan kegagalan penyaluran minyak bumi melalui pipa penyalur Tempino-Plaju.
Penelitian ini menganalisa 5 (lima) risiko bisnis yang ada pada PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area berdasarkan data historis di lapangan dari tahun 2015-2017 yaitu Illegal Tapping, Leaking, Main Equipment Damage, Failure in Gathering Station dan Failure in Metering System. Analisa risiko bisnis menggunakan metode Montecarlo dengan software Cristal Ball. Kemudian hasil simulasi ini diuji ulang dengan uji statistik Mann Whitney menggunakan software Minitab sebagai analisa pembanding.
Setelah melalui semua tahapan dalam proses simulasi Montecarlo, diperoleh risiko bisnis yang memiliki dampak risiko paling tinggi yaitu Illegal Tapping dan Leaking. Secara Risk Matrix PT Pertamina Gas, kumulatif probabilitas risiko bisnis akibat Illegal Tapping masuk kriteria Rare (index 2) dan Leaking masuk kriteria likely (index 4). Secara dampak terhadap financial loss, kedua risiko bisnis masuk kategori minor (index 2), maka Leaking berdampak paling besar terhadap kerugian perusahaan. Dalam penelitian juga dilakukan mitigasi risiko bisnis kritis dengan menggunakan fishbone diagram sehingga diperoleh tindakan mitigasi yang tepat terhadap risiko bisnis tersebut untuk dapat dimasukkan ke dalam rencana kerja perusahaan.
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PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area (PTG CSA) is one of the operational areas of PT Pertamina Gas which plays an important role in the transmission of crude oil from Gathering Station in Tempino, Jambi to km 03 Sei Gerong in Palembang area, where extends over +265 km and 8 inchi in diameter. Distribution data of PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area shows that crude oil transported from Tempino to Plaju continuously decreased until today. Its decreasing trend is caused by several business risk factors which possibly result a failure in crude oil transportation trough Tempino-Plaju pipelines.
This study analyzes 5 (five) business risks in PT Pertamina Gas Central Sumatera Area based on its historical data from 2015-2017 which are Illegal Tapping, Leaking, Main Equipment Damage, Failure in Gathering Station and Failure in Metering System. Those business risks are analyzed by using Montecarlo method with Cristal Ball Software. Subsequently, this simulation result are re-tested by Mann Whitney's statistical test using Minitab software as a comparison analysis.
After following series of steps in Montecarlo simulation, it found Illegal Tapping and Leaking as the risks which have the highest impact. PT Pertamina Gas Risk Matrix, shows that cumulative risk probability due to Illegal Tapping classified as Rare criteria (index 2) and Leaking classified as Likely criteria (index 4). While, impacts in financial loss occur from both business risks classified as minor category (index 2). Therefore, Leaking has the highest impact on company's losses. This research also conducted a critical business risk mitigation by using fishbone diagram in order to obtain appropriate mitigation activities as company's work plan referral.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Pipeline, Volume Penyaluran, Risiko Bisnis, Uji Statistik, Montecarlo, Mitigasi |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TN Mining engineering. Metallurgy T Technology > TN Mining engineering. Metallurgy > TN879.5 Petroleum pipelines |
| Divisions: | 61101-Magister Management Technology |
| Depositing User: | Dedi Mariadi |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Aug 2021 23:28 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Aug 2021 23:28 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/57098 |
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