Sari, Henni Jovita (2018) Peramalan Bilangan Sunspot Tahun 2018 dengan Menggunakan ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Sunspot merupakan bintik hitam yang berada di lapisan fotosfer matahari yang memiliki suhu lebih rendah dibandingkan daerah lain di fotosfer. Semakin banyak jumlah sunspot dan grup sunspot maka dapat menyebabkan ledakan berupa flare dan Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) yang dapat berpengaruh pada cuaca antariksa, gangguan magnetosfer bumi, dan pancaran sinar yang dihasilkan matahari. Selama ini LAPAN Watukosek melakukan prediksi bilangan sunspot namun tidak secara rutin dilakukan dan dipublikasikan kepada masyarakat. Melihat kondisi tersebut pada penelitian ini akan meramalkan bilangan sunspot periode 2018 dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA Box- Jenkins. Model peramalan yang dihasilkan dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui aktivitas matahari sehingga dapat mencegah dampak yang ditimbulkan jika bilangan sunspot tergolong tinggi. Model terbaik dari peramalan bilangan sunspot yaitu ARIMA([1,2,29],1,0). Bilangan sunspot tertinggi diprediksi terjadi pada bulan November dan yang terendah terjadi pada bulan Februari, walaupun bilangan sunspot tertinggi di bulan November tetapi memiliki bilangan sunspot yang rendah dan kemungkinan tidak berdampak pada bumi. Kondisi matahari pada tahun 2018 merupakan quiet cycle yaitu matahari berada pada kondisi tenang dan merupakan akhir dari siklus matahari ke- 24 sehingga kemungkinan besar tidak ada efek astronomi yang membahayakan.
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Sunspot is a black dot area located in the solar photosphere layer having lower temperature compared to the other areas of the photosphere. The more total number and group of sunspot cause several types of explosion called flare and coronal mass ejection (CME), that influences astronomical weather, earth magnetosfer disruption and the sunrays emitted by the sun per se. Until recently, LAPAN Watukosek has predicted the sunspot number but in a non-regular manner and the results were not publicly published. Based on that condition, this study forecasted the sunspot number in 2018 by using ARIMA Box-Jenkins. The resulted forecasting model can be used to mitigate solar activity so that avoiding the destructive impact of the solar activity when the number of sunspot considerably high. The best model from the sunspot number forecasting were ARIMA([1,2,29],1,0). The highest sunspot number was predicted to occur on November and the lowest one was on February. Although the highest sunspot number was predicted on November, but in fact, it was with lower number, implying no significant effect on Earth. Solar condition in 2018 is classified as a quiet cycle, that is the sun is on the steady condition and in its latest 24th cycle, thereby less likely a catastrophic effect will occur.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA, Bilangan Sunspot, Siklus Matahari. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics |
| Depositing User: | HENNI JOVITA SARI |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Aug 2021 09:06 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Aug 2021 09:06 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/58706 |
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