Maliangkay, Nadia Cikyta (2018) Penggunaan Metode ARIMA, Variasi Kalender, dan Intervensi Untuk Meramalkan Inflasi Kabupaten Sidoarjo - The Use Of ARIMA, Calendar Variation And Intervention Methods For Forecasting Sidoarjo Regency’s Inflation. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Inflasi berpengaruh bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Inflasi sangat diperhatikan dan dikontrol oleh pemerintah. Inflasi dapat berdampak baik jika dikontrol dan stabil, namun inflasi juga bisa berdampak buruk jika tak dikontrol dan tak stabil. Inflasi Kabupaten Sidoarjo belakangan ini mencapai angka yang cukup tinggi. Oleh karena itu, untuk mengantisipasi kenaikan inflasi yang tinggi, peramalan inflasi Kabupaten Sidoarjo penting untuk dilakukan agar dapat mengetahui bagaimana perkiraan inflasi selanjutnya dan menentukan kebijakan-kebijakan moneter yang harus diambil. Peramalan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA, Variasi Kalender, dan Intervensi untuk meramalkan inflasi Kabupaten Sidoarjo pada tahun yang akan datang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, hasil ramalan inflasi Kabupaten Sidoarjo Tahun 2018 dengan model ARIMA, intervensi, dan variasi kalender yang paling mendekati nilai aktual adalah hasil dari metode intervensi, yang berarti bahwa kenaikan harga BBM lebih berpengaruh dibanding dengan hari Raya Idul Fitri.
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Inflation affects the economic growth and welfare of the people. Inflation is highly regarded and controlled by the government. Inflation can be good if controlled and stable, but inflation can also be bad if it is not controlled and unstable. The inflation of Sidoarjo Regency recently reached a fairly high number. Therefore, to anticipate the high inflation increase, inflation prediction in Sidoarjo Regency is important to do in order to know how to estimate the next inflation and determine the monetary policies that must be taken. Forecasting in this study using ARIMA method, Calendar Variation, and Intervention to predict inflation in Sidoarjo Regency in the coming year. Based on the results of the study, the inflation forecast of Sidoarjo Regency in 2018 with ARIMA, intervention, and calendar variation models are the results whish is closest to the actual value are the results of the intervention method, it means that the increase in fuel prices is more influential than the Eid-ul-Fitr holiday.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSMa 519.536 Mal p-1 3100018076870 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA, Inflasi, Intervensi, Variasi Kalender, ARIMA, Calender Variation, Inflation, Intervention. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Nadia Cikyta Maliangkay |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Jan 2019 03:07 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Feb 2021 08:03 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/58712 |
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