Akhsani, Moh. Furqon (2018) Pengambilan Keputusan Operation And Maintenance (O&M) PLTU Batu Bara Dengan Menggunakan Pemodelan Keandalan Dan Sistem Dinamik. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Salah satu faktor krusial dalam bisnis pembangkitan tenaga listrik adalah terkait Operation and Maintenance (O&M). Tesis ini bertujuan membangun Decission Support System (DSS) menggunakan sistem dinamik untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan bagi manajemen, diantaranya dalam pemilihan model O&M yang dipergunakan dalam mengelola aset pembangkit, khususnya PLTU batu bara. Sasaran yang ingin dicapai adalah memaksimalkan Net Present Value (NPV) dan tingkat ketersediaan (availability). Analisis reliability merupakan novelty (kebaruan) dari tesis ini yang memungkinkan decision support system (DSS) mendekati karakteristik operasional pembangkit dalam konteks life cycle cost management.
Analisis biaya dibatasi pada fase Operation and Maintenance (O&M). Beberapa opsi O&M yang disimulasikan adalah : (a) seluruh aktivitas di O&M dikerjakan internal pemilik aset; (b) aktivitas O&M dialihdayakan untuk cakupan asset manager dan asset operator; (c) aktivitas O&M dialihdayakan untuk cakupan asset operator untuk seluruh aset pembangkit; dan (d) aktivitas O&M dialihdayakan untuk cakupan asset operator hanya untuk balance of plant (peralatan pendukung). Kriteria keberterimaan dalam tesis ini menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dengan ketentuan MAPE < 10% (sangat tepat), 10% < MAPE < 20% (tepat), 20% < MAPE < 50% (cukup tepat), MAPE > 50% (tidak tepat). Uji validitas model ini memberikan MAPE 1.38%(NPHR), 2,45% (konsumsi batu bara), dan 5,48% (EAF) sehingga dapat disimpulkan model valid dengan tingkat akurasi sangat tepat.
Pada kondisi availability pembangkit tidak dipengaruhi variasi metodologi O&M, opsi mengalihdayakan O&M PLTU batu bara 600 MW dalam cakupan kewenanangan asset operator memberikan NPV tertinggi (Rp. 5.196.048.498.688,00) untuk 10 tahun periode simulasi. Faktor paling sensitif yang mempengaruhi pencapaian Net Present Value (NPV) dan ketersediaan (EAF) adalah harga batu bara (62,36%). Untuk itu perlu dipikirkan mitigasi atas risiko kompetensi personil dan keterlambatan birokrasi. Selain itu, manajemen juga harus fokus mendapatkan mitra alihdaya yang menawarkan harga kompetitif tanpa mengabaikan kualitas karena sensitivitas parameter ini terhadap NPV adalah 4,15%.
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One of important factors in the power generation business is related to Operation and Maintenance (O&M). This thesis aims to build Decision Support System (DSS) using system dynamic for assist decision making process for coal-fired power plant, to provide maximum profit Net Present Value (NPV) and availability level. Reliability analysis is the novelty of this thesis which allows decision support system (DSS) to approach the operational characteristics of the plant in the context of life cycle cost management.
Cost analysis boundaries related to the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) phase. Some simulated O&M options are: (a) all O&M activities are performed by internal sourcing; (b) O&M activity is outsourced for asset manager and asset operator authority; (c) O&M activities are outsourced for asset operator authority; and (d) O & M activities are outsourced for asset operator authority only for balance of plant (supporting equipment). The acceptance criteria in this thesis using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with terms : MAPE < 10% (highly accurate), 10% < MAPE < 20% (good), 20% < MAPE < 50% (reasonable), MAPE > 50% (inaccurate). The validity test of this model yields MAPE 1.38% (NPHR), 2.45% (coal consumption), and 5.48% (EAF). Therefore can be concluded that model is valid with high accuracy.
In term of availability is independent to O & M methodology variant, outsourced O & M for 600 MW Coal Fired Plant with asset operator authority gives the highest NPV (IDR 5,196,048,498,688.00) for 10 years simulation period. The most sensitive factor affecting Net Present Value (NPV) and availability (EAF) is coal price (62.36%). In other hand, management should prepare some mitigation related to risks of personnel competence and bureaucratic delays. In addition, management should also focus on getting an outsourcing partner that offers competitive pricing without neglecting quality because its sensitivity to NPV about 4.15%.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTM 658.403 Akh p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Operation & maintenance, Decision support system, Sistem dinamik, Reliability |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery > TJ164 Power plants--Design and construction |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology > Mechanical Engineering > 21101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Moh Furqon Akhsani |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Sep 2020 03:40 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2020 03:40 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/59598 |
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