Sa'u, Christoffel Ferdy Bertholomeos (2018) Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Pengembangan Fasilitas Subsea Lapangan Minyak Dan Gas Di Laut Dalam. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pengambilan keputusan dalam industri minyak dan gas bumi (migas) dipengaruhi
oleh ketidakpastian. Perusahaan harus selektif, memilih proyek yang
menguntungkan bisnisnya. Tahapan pengambilan keputusan investasi minyak dan
gas di PT NOC yakni; Tahap inisiasi, tahap seleksi, tahap kajian lanjut, tahap
eksekusi. Penelitian ini mengunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process
(AHP), guna seleksi teknologi tipe konfigurasi sumur. Subsea tie-back konfigurasi
tipe satellite untuk 6 sumur menjadi yang ekonomis, dan untuk 12 sumur, jenis
subsea tie-back konfigurasi template yang ekonomis. Menggunakan metode
pohon keputusan menentukan kelayakan investasi, dengan kontrak kerjasama
sistem PSC gross split, kontrak antara PT NOC dan Pemerintah. Kemudian
Skenario pengembangan fasilitas subsea divariasikan, untuk jumlah sumur,
jumlah cadangan dan harga minyak. Skenario pengembangannya; full
development dan phasing development. Hasil seleksinya yakni; Untuk lokasi I
dengan kedalaman 350 meter, produksi 15 tahun dan jumlah cadangan minyak
70.45 MMbbl, saat harga minyak $100/bbl, maka PSC gross split PT NOC 82,5%
dan Pemerintah 17,5%, skenario ini menghasilkan IRR 4%, dan payback period 7
tahun 3 bulan. Untuk PSC gross split lokasi II, PT NOC displit 79,5%, dan
Pemerintah 20,5%. Usia produksinya 42 tahun dan mempunyai cadangan gas:
1,99 BBOE dan condensate: 321.71 MMbbl-condensate, kedalamnya 1400 meter,
dengan skenario phasing development untuk lokasi II saat harga minyak $
100/barel menghasilkan IRR 2%, dan jangka waktu kembali modal (payback
periode) 15 tahun 3 bulan. Skenario ini memberikan nilai tertingi untuk Expected
Monetary Value EMV = 7,227. Namun skenario ini belum layak, karena nilai
MARRnya sebesar 10%, artinya layak investasi jika IRR > suku bunga MARR.
Penelitian ini juga, mengaplikasikan metode Scenario planning untuk strategi
pengembangan, strategi untuk “Industri Migas Laut Dalam di Indonesia Tahun
2047” yakni; Mengintegrasikan fokus Pemerintah dan PT NOC guna
pengembangan industri minyak dan gas laut dalam; sumber dana untuk investasi
bisnis hulu, akses kapital dan peningkatan teknologi laut dalam di Indonesia.
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Decision making of the oil and gas industry is influenced by uncertainty.
Companies must be selective, choosing projects that benefit their business. Stages
of oil and gas investment decisions in PT NOC; Initiation stage, selection stage,
advanced review stage, execution stage. This research uses Analytical Hierarchy
Process (AHP) method, for selection of well configuration type technology. The
subsea tie-back configuration of the satellite type for the 6 wells became
economical, and for 12 wells, the subsea type tie-back configuration template was
economical. Using decision tree methods determines the feasibility of investing,
with contracts of gross split PSC systems, contracts between PT NOC and the
Government. Subsea facility development scenarios are then varied, for the
number of wells, reserves and oil prices. The development scenario; full
development and phasing development. Selection results are; For location I with a
depth of 350 meters, production of 15 years and the totals of oil reserves of 70.45
MMbbl, when the oil price is $ 100 / bbl, the PSC gross split PT NOC 82.5% and
Government 17.5%, this scenario yields IRR 4%, and payback period 7 years 3
months. For PSC gross split location II, PT NOC split 79,5%, and Government
20,5%. Production age is 42 years and has gas reserves: 1.99 BBOE and
condensate: 321.71 MMbbl-condensate, up to 1400 meters, with phasing
development scenario for location II when oil price of $ 100 / barrel yields 2%
IRR and capital return period payback period) 15 years 3 months. This scenario
provides the highest value for Expected Monetary Value EMV = 7,227. But this
scenario is not yet feasible. MARR value is 10%, it means it is worth investing if
IRR> MARR interest rate. This research also applies Scenario planning method
for development strategy, strategy for "deep sea oil industry in Indonesia year
2047"; Integrating the focus of the Government and PT NOC for the development
of deep sea oil and gas industry; funding sources for upstream business
investment, capital access and deep marine technology development in Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTKe 665.7 Sa'u p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Keputusan Investasi, Pengembangan Subsea Laut Dalam, PSC-Gross Split, analytical hierarchy process-AHP, Pohon Keputusan, Scenario Plannning, Investment Decision Making, Deepwater Subsea Development, PSCGross Split, analytical hierarchy process-AHP, Decision Tree, Scenario Planing. |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC1680 Offshore structures |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Naval Architecture and Shipbuilding Engineering > 36101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | ansi aflacha |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Nov 2018 03:29 |
| Last Modified: | 25 Apr 2024 05:58 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/59966 |
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