Fatchiyah, Laila (2014) Evaluasi Pengaruh Variasi Metode Peramalan Terhadap Perencanaan Fasilitas Terminal Penumpang Domestik Bandara Internasional Juanda (Metode : ARIMA dan Regresi Dummy). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Bandara Internasional Juanda saat ini telah mengalami over
capacity. Pada akhir tahun 2013 Bandara Juanda terdata melayani 17,6
juta penumpang/tahun meningkat 12% dari tahun sebelumnya. Bandara
Juanda memiliki gedung terminal 1 dengan kapasitas 6,5 juta
penumpang/tahun dan gedung terminal 2 dengan kapasitas 6 juta
penumpang/tahun.
Berdasarkan peningkatan yang cukup tinggi, peramalan
(forecasting) akan jumlah penumpang menjadi sangat penting dalam
kaitannya dengan perencanaan fasilitas gedung terminal penumpang.
Dalam tugas akhir ini dilakukan evaluasi terhadap variasi metode
peramalan untuk mengetahui sensitivitas dari perubahan pola
peramalan terhadap jumlah penumpang di bandara. Variasi peramalan
yang dipilih dalam tugas akhir ini menggunakan ARIMA
(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dan Regresi Dummy.
Peramalan menggunakan model ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,0)12
dengan tingkat kesalahan kriteria Symetric Mean Absolute Presentage
Error (SMAPE) diperoleh 12,38% menunjukkan hasil peramalan tahun
2014 masih terjadi trend kenaikan. Hasil metode peramalan regresi
dummy dengan kriteria sMAPE diperoleh 15,13% menunjukkan
peramalan tahun 2014 cenderung menurun. Masing-masing metode
peramalan selanjutnya diadopsi untuk menjadi data entri dalam
perhitungan fasilitas penumpang pada gedung terminal 1 Bandara
Juanda. Kebutuhan fasilitas menggunakan perbandingan antara data
eksisting 2013, data hasil peramalan ARIMA, data hasil peramalan
regresi dengan data layout. Fasilitas departure curb, departure hall dan check-in counter menunjukkan kebutuhan fasilitas lebih besar dari
layout yang ada saat ini.
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Juanda International Airport nowadays has experienced over
capacity. In the end of year 2013, Juanda Airport recorded serve 17,6
million passenger/year, an increased of 12% from the previous year.
Juanda Airport has terminal building 1 with a capacity of 6,5 million
passenger/year and terminal building 2 with a capacity of 6 million
passenger/year.
Based on an increased of the number of passengers which is
quite high, forecasting method will be very important in relation to the
passenger terminal building facilities planning. In this paper, an
evaluation of the variations of forecasting methods to determine a
sensitivity of changes in the pattern of forecasting the number of
passengers at airport. The variations that will be used in this paper are
ARIMA and dummy regression.
Forecasting by using ARIMA model (1,1,1)(1,0,0)12 with
Symetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) is 12,38% shows
that the number of passengers in 2014 is still increasing continuously.
Forecasting using dummy regression with SMAPE 15,13% shows that it
tends to decrease. Each method was then adopted to be an entry data in
the calculation of passenger facilities at terminal building 1 Juanda
Airport. The calculation of passenger facility needs the use of existing
data in 2013, data from the result of ARIMA forecasting, data from the
result of dummy regression forecasting in coparison to data layout
Juanda Airports. Facilities of curb departure, departure hall, and the check-in counter shows that the needs of facilities that has been
calculated is greater than the current layout.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSS 380.5 Fat e |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Metode peramalan; ARIMA; Regresi Dummy; fasilitas penumpang; Terminal bandara |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | - Taufiq Rahmanu |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Jul 2019 03:07 |
| Last Modified: | 08 May 2020 03:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/63847 |
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