Evaluasi pengaruh variasi metode peramalan terhadap perencanaan fasilitas terminal penumpang domestik Bandara Internasional Juanda (Metode : ARIMA dan Regresi Dummy)

Fatchiyah, Laila (2014) Evaluasi pengaruh variasi metode peramalan terhadap perencanaan fasilitas terminal penumpang domestik Bandara Internasional Juanda (Metode : ARIMA dan Regresi Dummy). Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Bandara Internasional Juanda saat ini telah mengalami over capacity. Pada akhir tahun 2013 Bandara Juanda terdata melayani 17,6 juta penumpang/tahun meningkat 12% dari tahun sebelumnya. Bandara Juanda memiliki gedung terminal 1 dengan kapasitas 6,5 juta penumpang/tahun dan gedung terminal 2 dengan kapasitas 6 juta penumpang/tahun. Berdasarkan peningkatan yang cukup tinggi, peramalan (forecasting) akan jumlah penumpang menjadi sangat penting dalam kaitannya dengan perencanaan fasilitas gedung terminal penumpang. Dalam tugas akhir ini dilakukan evaluasi terhadap variasi metode peramalan untuk mengetahui sensitivitas dari perubahan pola peramalan terhadap jumlah penumpang di bandara. Variasi peramalan yang dipilih dalam tugas akhir ini menggunakan ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dan Regresi Dummy. Peramalan menggunakan model ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,0)12 dengan tingkat kesalahan kriteria Symetric Mean Absolute Presentage Error (SMAPE) diperoleh 12,38% menunjukkan hasil peramalan tahun 2014 masih terjadi trend kenaikan. Hasil metode peramalan regresi dummy dengan kriteria sMAPE diperoleh 15,13% menunjukkan peramalan tahun 2014 cenderung menurun. Masing-masing metode peramalan selanjutnya diadopsi untuk menjadi data entri dalam perhitungan fasilitas penumpang pada gedung terminal 1 Bandara Juanda. Kebutuhan fasilitas menggunakan perbandingan antara data eksisting 2013, data hasil peramalan ARIMA, data hasil peramalan regresi dengan data layout. Fasilitas departure curb, departure hall dan check-in counter menunjukkan kebutuhan fasilitas lebih besar dari layout yang ada saat ini. ==================================================================================================== Juanda International Airport nowadays has experienced over capacity. In the end of year 2013, Juanda Airport recorded serve 17,6 million passenger/year, an increased of 12% from the previous year. Juanda Airport has terminal building 1 with a capacity of 6,5 million passenger/year and terminal building 2 with a capacity of 6 million passenger/year. Based on an increased of the number of passengers which is quite high, forecasting method will be very important in relation to the passenger terminal building facilities planning. In this paper, an evaluation of the variations of forecasting methods to determine a sensitivity of changes in the pattern of forecasting the number of passengers at airport. The variations that will be used in this paper are ARIMA and dummy regression. Forecasting by using ARIMA model (1,1,1)(1,0,0)12 with Symetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) is 12,38% shows that the number of passengers in 2014 is still increasing continuously. Forecasting using dummy regression with SMAPE 15,13% shows that it tends to decrease. Each method was then adopted to be an entry data in the calculation of passenger facilities at terminal building 1 Juanda Airport. The calculation of passenger facility needs the use of existing data in 2013, data from the result of ARIMA forecasting, data from the result of dummy regression forecasting in coparison to data layout Juanda Airports. Facilities of curb departure, departure hall, and the check-in counter shows that the needs of facilities that has been calculated is greater than the current layout.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSS 380.5 Fat e
Uncontrolled Keywords: Metode peramalan; ARIMA; Regresi Dummy; fasilitas penumpang; Terminal bandara
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: - Taufiq Rahmanu
Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2019 03:07
Last Modified: 11 Jul 2019 03:07
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/63847

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