Arynta, Meyda (2019) Pemodelan Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pencurian Kendaraan Bermotor (Curanmor) di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu provinsi di Indonesia dengan jumlah kejahatan yang cukup tinggi setelah Sumatra Utara dan DKI Jakarta. Data Kepolisian Negara Daerah Jawa Timur menyatakan bahwa jumlah kejahatan di Jawa Timur sebanyak 29.960 kasus, dengan kasus terbanyak di setiap kabupaten/kota adalah pencurian kendaraan bermotor (curanmor). Pada penelitian ini memodelkan persentase pencurian kendaraan bermotor (curanmor) di Jawa Timur dengan 4 variabel yang diduga berpengaruh. Metode yang dipilih adalah regresi nonparametrik spline truncated. Metode tersebut dipilih karena spline merupakan metode yang fleksibel dan pada model ini cenderung mencari sendiri estimasi data. Dalam pemodelan ini terdapat titik knot. Pemilihan titik knot optimum dilakukan dengan cara memilih nilai GCV paling minimum. Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan semua variabel prediktor berpengaruh terhadap pencurian kendaraan bermotor (curanmor), yaitu tingkat pengangguran terbuka, kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, dan persentase penduduk yang tidak pernah sekolah, dengan nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 97.42 %.
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East Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with a high number of crimes after North Sumatra and DKI Jakarta. Data from the East Java Regional Police reported that the number of crimes in East Java was 29,960 cases, with the highest number of cases in each district or city being theft of motor vehicles. In this study modeling the percentage theft of motor vehicle in East Java with 4 variables which expected influence. The method chosen is spline truncated nonparametric regression. The method was chosen because the spline is a flexible method and, in this model tends to look for data estimates for themselves. In this model there is a knot point. Selection of the optimum knot point by selecting the GCV is the most minimum. Based on the research that has been done, all predictor variables have a significant effect on theft of motor vehicles, namely the level of open acquisition, population density, percentage of poor people, and the percentage of residents who have never attended school, with a determination coefficient of 97.42 percent.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.536 Ary i-1 2019 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Pencurian Kendaraan Bermotor, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated, GCV |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.35 Analysis of variance H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation Q Science Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Meyda Arynta |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Jun 2023 03:41 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Jun 2023 03:41 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/63988 |
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