Naufal, Muhammad (2019) Prediksi Perubahan Penutupan Lahan Pasca Beroperasinya Gerbang Tol (Interchange) Pandaan di Kecamatan Pandaan Kabupaten Pasuruan Menggunakan Metode Regresi Logistik Biner. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pembangunan infrastruktur transportasi akan berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan lahan. Kecamatan Pandaan berada pada jalur mobilitas yang menghubungkan 2 (dua) kota besar, Kota Surabaya dengan Kota Malang. Pembangunan Gerbang Tol pada Kecamatan Pandaan bertujuan untuk memicu perkembangan wilayah disekitarnya. Ketidakpastian perumusan kebijakan alokasi pemanfaatan lahan dalam rencana tata ruang diakibatkan karena terbatasnya informasi tentang kemungkinan peristiwa perubahan tutupan lahan yang terjadi. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk mengkaji kemungkinan perubahan tutupan lahan di sekitar Gerbang TOL Interchange Pandaan di Kecamatan Pandaan, Kabupaten Pasuruan. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi masukan untuk pemerintah Kabupaten Pasuruan dalam mengevaluasi kebijakan dan pertimbangan rencana pemanfaatan lahan, sebagaimana yang terdapat pada rencana tata ruang. Penentuan potensi perubahan tutupan lahan yang dilakukan secara keseluruhan meliputi tiga teknik analisis. (1) Teknik analisis statistik uji KMO dan regresi logistik bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi variabel penentu perubahan penutupan lahan. (2) teknik analisa regresi logistik untuk menghasilkan model matematis perubahan tutupan lahan dan (3) teknik analisis spasial digunakan untuk melakukan mengkonversi model matematis perubahan tutupan lahan di Kecamatan Pandaan, Kabupaten Pasuruan. Proses validasi dilakukan dengan menghitung nilai ketepataan model melalui 2 (dua) alternatif, pehitungnan confusion matrix dan perhitungan root mean square error (RMSE). Setiap tahapan penelitian menghasilkan luaran yang saling berkaitan. Terdapat 10 variabel penentu perubahan tutupan lahan yang dihasilkan dari teknik analisis regresi logistik. Tinggi rendahnya kemungkinan perubahan tutupan lahan ditentukan oleh jarak dari variabel-variabel tersebut. Variabel yang berpengaruh dalam model tersebut adalah TOL (interchange), Wilayah Industri, Wilayah Permukiman, Kawasan Perdagangan dan Jasa, Sarana Pendidikan, Sarana Peribadatan, Sarana Perkantoran, Jaringan Jalan Arteri, Jaringan Listrik, dan Jaringan Air Bersih. Hasil perumusan model spasial perubahan tutupan lahan menunjukan bahwa probabilitas perubahan lahan di Kecamatan Pandaan sebesar 0,00000072289 sampai dengan 0,986763. Sedangkan lahan non-terbangun yang berpotensi untuk berubah dengan jenis tutupan lahan pertanian kering dan hortikultura, perkebunan, serta peternakan sebesar 327,55 hektar.
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Transportation infrastructure, will influence the development of land. Pandaan subdistrict is located on the mobility line that connect two cities, Surabaya City and Malang City. The construction of toll gates in Pandaan subdistrict aims to tigger the development of surrounding territories. Uncertainty about the formulation of land utilization allocation policy in spatial plan document due to limited information about the possible events of the land cover change occuring. This research is aimed at reviewing the possible change of land cover around Pandaan Interchange Toll Gate in Pandaan subdistrict, Pasuruan Regency. This research is expected to be input for Pasuruan Regency Goverment in evaluating policy and consideration of land utilization plans, as found in the spatial plan document. The potential determination od the overall land cover change includes three analytical techniques. (1) The KMO and Bartlett test statistical analysis technique and logistic regression aims to identify the variable changing land cover. (2) Logistic regression techniques to generate mathematical models of land cover change and (3) Spatial analysis techniques are used to convert mathematical models of land cover change in Pndan subdistrict, Pasuruan Regency. The validation process is done by calculating of model’s alignment through two alternatives, confusion matrix calcultion and root mean square error (RMSE) calculation. Each phase of research results in interrelated external. There are 10 variables of land cover change resulting from logistic regression analysis technique. The low likehood of land cover change is determined by the distance of those variables. The influential variables in the model are the Toll Gates (Interchange), residential area, bussiness area, educational facilities, worship facilities, office facilities, arterial road network, electrical network, and clean water network. Result of the formulation of spatial land cover changes showed thah the probability of land change in Pandaan subdistrict amounted to 0,00000072289 to 0,986763. As for the non-built up area that potentially to changes with the type of dry-land farming and horticultura, plantation land, and livestock land amounting to 327,55 hectares.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSPW 333.731 3 Nau p-1 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Gerbang TOL (interchange), perubahan tutupan lahan, model regresi logistik, model spasial |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Architecture, Design, and Planning > Regional and Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Muhammad Naufal |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Apr 2025 00:58 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Apr 2025 00:58 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/66742 |
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