Sumardi, Sitti Rosnafi'an (2019) Kendali Optimal Pada Penyebaran Virus Ebola Dengan Mempertimbangkan Pengaruh Perubahan Perilaku Manusia Dan Iklim. (Studi Kasus : Republik Demokratik Kongo. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pada tesis ini dikontruksi model matematika tipe SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery) dengan mempertimbangkan pengaruh perubahan perilaku manusia dan iklim di Kongo dalam bentuk persamaan diferensial untuk menggambarkan penyebaran virus Ebola. Sistem yang dikonstruksi selanjutnya divalidasi menggunakan analisis eksistensi dan ketunggalan. Selanjutnya dilakukan analisis penyebaran virus dengan analisis kestabilan. Berdasarkan hasil analisis kestabilan menunjukkan bahwa sistem tidak stabil. Sehingga diperlukan suatu tindakan untuk mengendalikan virus Ebola di Kongo yaitu dengan kontrol optimal. Tujuan diberikannya kontrol optimal untuk meminimumkan jumlah orang yang berperilaku menyimpang pada populasi susceptible dan meminimumkan populasi infected. Penyelesaian kendali optimal selanjutnya diselesaikan dengan menggunakan metode PMP. Simulasi numerik dilakukan dengan menggunakan nilai α = 0.70519 dan memberikan hasil kontrol u = 0.9980 artinya bahwa penyuluhan diberikan secara maksimal pada populasi S di awal pengamatan sampai hari ke 48 selanjutnya nilai u berangsur-angsur menurun.
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In this thesis constructed a mathematical model of type SEIR (Susceptible- Exposed-Infected-Recovery) by advancing the motivation of change in humans and humans in Congo in the form of climate. The next constructed system is validated using an analysis of existence and oneness. Furthermore, an analysis of the spread of the virus was carried out with stability analysis. Based on the results of the stability analysis shows that the system is not stable. An action is needed to control the Ebola virus in Congo with optimal control. The objective is to provide optimal control to minimize the number of people who behave deviant in the population textit susceptible and minimize the population textit infected. The completion of the optimal settlement is then completed using the PMP method. Numerical simulations are carried out using the value of α = 0.70519 and give the results of control u = 0.9980 as intended given by the maximum in the population S at the beginning of monitoring until the day to 48 then the value of u gradually - installments are increasing.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Ebola, SEIR, Perubahan Perilaku, Iklim, Kestabilan, Kontrol Optimal, PMP, RK-4 |
| Subjects: | Q Science Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.3 Structural equation modeling. Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA402 System analysis. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Mathematics > 44101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | SITTI ROSNAFI'AN SUMARDI |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Aug 2026 07:47 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Aug 2026 07:47 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/67084 |
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