Kajian Aspek Finansial Pada Analisis Investasi Proyek Peningkatan Kecepatan Kereta Api Koridor Jakarta – Surabaya

Suyanto, Hary (2020) Kajian Aspek Finansial Pada Analisis Investasi Proyek Peningkatan Kecepatan Kereta Api Koridor Jakarta – Surabaya. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Permintaan angkutan penumpang dan barang antara Jakarta – Surabaya terus meningkat. Diperkirakan tahun 2030 penumpang kereta api eksekutif 3,1 juta pnp, dan penumpang pesawat 30,5 juta pnp. Sedangkan permintaan angkutan barang melalui jalan pantura diperkirakan 39,77 juta ton pada tahun 2030. Pemerintah menyadari akan perlunya transportasi massal yang efisien, handal, aman dan nyaman juga dengan harga yang terjangkau. Berdasarkan Rencana Induk Perkeretaapian Nasional (RIPNAS), pemerintah merencanakan untuk meningkatkan kecepatan kereta api koridor Jakarta–Surabaya sepanjang 720 km dari kecepatan konvensional 12 jam menjadi 5 jam (skenario 1) atau 3,5 jam (skenario 2). Kriteria dan indikator evaluasi kelayakan finansial menggunakan metode perhitungan Net Present Value (NPV), Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) dan Break Event Point (BEP). Permintaan dan perkiraan penumpang pada skenario 1 diprediksi akan terjadi pergeseran penumpang KA eksekutif ke kereta cepat sebesar 63,25% rute Jakarta-Surabaya PP, sedangkan skenario 2 sebesar 83,23%. Untuk penumpang pesawat rute Jakarta-Surabaya PP diperkirakan terjadi pergeseran penumpang sebesar 50,72%. Pada analisis finansial proyek dengan faktor diskonto 8% didapat hasil NPV skenario 1 = -26,6 trilyun rupiah , dan skenario 2 = -24,2 trilyun rupiah sehingga tidak bisa memenuhi nilai IRR, BCR dan BEP pada usia ekonomis proyek (50 tahun), namun secara spesifik kajian aspek finansial bukan menjadi satu-satunya tolok ukur dalam menentukan kriteria kelayakan investasi
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The demand of passenger and goods transportation between Jakarta – Surabaya continues to increase. Estimated in 2030, passengers train executive will be 3,1 million. And airplane passengers will be 30,5 million. While demand for the freight transportation through the ‘pantura’ road is estimated at 39,77 million tons in 2030. The government is aware of the needs for efficient, reliable, safe and comfortable mass transportation at affordable prices. Based on the National Railway Master Plan (RIPNAS), the government plans to increase the train speed Jakarta-Surabaya corridor along 720 km from the conventional speed of 12 hours to 5 hours (scenario 1) or 3.5 hours (scenario 2). Criteria and indicators of financial feasibility evaluation using the calculation method of Net Present Value (NPV), Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Break Event Point (BEP). The demand and forecast of passengers in scenario 1 are predicted to be a shift in executive train passengers to the fast train by 63.25%, the Jakarta-Surabaya PP route, while scenario 2 is 83.23%. For the passengers of the Jakarta-Surabaya PP flight, it is estimated that there is a shift in passengers by 50.72%.
In the analysis of project finance with an 8% discount factor, the NPV results for scenario 1 = -26.6 trillion IDR, and scenario 2 = -24.2 trillion IDR, so those cannot meet the IRR, BCR and BEP values at the project’s economic age (50 years) but specifically studies the financial aspect is not the only benchmark in the definition of investment eligibility criteria.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Additional Information:	RTMT 332.632 47 Suy k-1 2020
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisa Investasi Proyek, NPV, IRR, BCR, BEP, Perkeretaapian Nasional.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Technology Management > 61101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Hary Suyanto
Date Deposited:	30 Aug 2023 04:09
Last Modified:	30 Aug 2023 04:09
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/73043

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