Listriyana, Ani (2016) Analisa Dampak Rencana Pembangunan Smelter Di Sekitar Taman Nasional Baluran Terhadap Perekonomian Situbondo Dengan Pendekatan Gaming Dan Pemodelan Dinamika System. Masters thesis, Institut Teknology Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Studi di beberapa negara menunjukkan bahwa limbah dari smelter Nikel
menimbulkan dampak buruk terhadap lingkungan yang pada akhirnya secara tidak
langsung berefek pada perekonomian. Rencana pembangunan smelter Nikel yang
berbatasan langsung dengan Taman nasional Baluran di Situbondo cukup meresahkan
beberapa pihak. Kami berupaya untuk memodelkan efek dari pembangunan smelter
ini 10-30 tahun ke depan terhadap lingkungan pertanian, perikanan, Taman Nasional
Baluran dengan melihat kemungkinan “peran” dari berbagai pihak penentu kebijakan
dalam keputusan pendirian smelter ini. Sektor perikanan yang di amati adalah potensi
lestari perikanan, perikanan tangkap, produksi perikanan budidaya dan income
perikanan. Terhadap sektor pertanian, kami mengamati kondisi produksi tanaman
pangan, hortikultura dan income pertanian. Sedangkan dari sudut pandang adanya
Taman Nasional, yang diamati adalah pengaruh terhadap jumlah pengunjung, income
Taman Nasional dan pendapatan daerah di sekitar Taman Nasional. Pemodelan
dengan menggunakan software Stela kami buat 3 skenario yaitu eksisting (kondisi
tanpa ada smelter), optimis (kondisi ada green smelter) dan pesimis (kondisi ada
nongreen smelter). Hasil running selama 30 tahun menunjukkan kondisi peningkatan
dari semua sektor namun pertumbuhan kondisi eksisting lebih tinggi dibandingkan
skenario optimis dan pesimis. Ada beberapa subsector yang kondisi di tahun ke -1
sampai ke-5 kondisi optimis dan pesimis lebih tinggi dari kondisi eksisting dan
selanjutnya tahun ke-10 hingga tahun ke-30 kondisi eksisting yang lebih tinggi. Hal
ini menunjukkan pada 5 tahun pertama, kondisi limbah belum terlalu banyak
sehingga kondisi ekonomi mulai menurun sebagai akibat dari menurunnya kualitas
lingkungan pada tahun ke-10 hingga tahun ke-30.
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Studies in several countries, the waste from the nickel smelter cause adverse effects
on the environment, which in turn indirectly affect the economy. Nickel smelter
development plan which is directly adjacent to the Baluran National Park in
Situbondo quite troubling some parties. We strive to model the effects of the
construction of this smelter 10-30 years into the future on the environment of
agriculture, fisheries, and Baluran National Park is affecting the economy in each
sector by examining the possibility of "role" of the various parties in the policy
making decisions of this smelter establishment. The fisheries sector is observed is the
potential for sustainable fisheries, catch of fisheries, aquaculture harvest and fisheries
income. Against the agricultural sector, we observe the conditions food plant
production, horticulture and agriculture income. Meanwhile, from the standpoint of
the national park, which is observed is an influence on the number of visitors, income
and revenue of the National Parks in the area around the National Park. Modelling
using software stela we created three scenarios that existing (without any condition
smelter), optimistic (green smelter condition) and pessimistic (nongreen smelter
conditions). The results of running for 30 years showed an increase in the condition
of all sectors but the growth of existing conditions higher than optimistic and
pessimistic. There are several subsector that conditions in 1th year until 5th year of
optimistic and pessimistic conditions is higher than the existing condition and the
subsequent years of the 10th year until the 30th year existing condition is more higher
than oprimist and pessimist. It shows the first 5 years, the condition of the waste is
not so much that the economy began to decline as a result of environmental
degradation in the 10th to 30th year. Keywords: Nickel Smelter, Modeling System
Dynamics, Economics, Fisheries, Agriculture, Baluran National Park.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTKe 620.106 4 Lis a |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Smelter Nikel, Pemodelan Dinamika Sistem, Ekonomi, Perikanan, Pertanian, Taman Nasional Baluran |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races > HT166 City Planning--Environmental aspects |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36101-(S2) Master Theses |
| Depositing User: | Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Feb 2020 02:35 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Feb 2020 02:35 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/74795 |
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