Silalahi, Marini Debora (2015) RSSt 519.535 Sil p • Silalahi, Marini Debora. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Salah satu akomodasi utama yang terdapat di daerah tempat wisata dan kota besar, yang memiliki daya tarik untuk dikunjungi baik untuk urusan bisnis atau untuk berlibur adalah hotel. Tingkat Penghunian Kamar (TPK) hotel merupakan salah satu unsur utama pendapatan dibidang industri perhotelan. TPK adalah persentasi jumlah kamar yang terjual dari total jumlah kamar yang mampu terjual. Bisnis perhotelan mempunyai andil yang cukup besar terhadap penerimaan devisa negara. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengetahui model peramalan terbaik dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins dan Fungsi Transfer Single Input, untuk meramalkan TPK hotel berbintang di empat provinsi yang ada di Indonesia, yaitu Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Barat, Kepulauan Riau dan Bali. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan mulai Januari 2008 sampai Oktober 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ARIMA merupakan model terbaik untuk meramalkan TPK di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dan Bali, sedangkan model Fungsi Transfer memberikan hasil peramalan terbaik di Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Kepulauan Riau.
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One of the main accommodations in the tourism area and metropolism, that has interested to visit either for business or vacation is hotel. In hospitality industry, occupancy rates is a key aspect of hotel revenue management. Occupancy is percentage of the number of hotel rooms used compare to the total number of rooms available to use. The hospitality business has a big role in foreign exchange, particularly in the Regional Government. The purpose of this research is to find the best forecasting model by using Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Single Input Transfer Function method, to predict occupancy rate of hotel with star rating in four Provinces in Indonesia, they are North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau Islands and Bali Province. Data range was used monthly data from January 2008 to October 2014. The results of this research showed that ARIMA method is the best forecasting model to predict occupancy rate of hotel in West Sumatra and Bali Province, whereas Transfer Function method, give the best forecasting result in North Sumatra and Riau Islands Province.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.535 Sil p |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | TPK, ARIMA Box-Jenkins, Fungsi Transfer Single Input |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models. |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Yeni Anita Gonti |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Feb 2020 03:18 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Feb 2020 03:18 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/75128 |
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