Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Non Migas Dari Sektor Pertanian Indonesia Menggunakan Metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins

Gabrela, Patrica Pungky (2016) Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Non Migas Dari Sektor Pertanian Indonesia Menggunakan Metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan negara agraris dimana peran sektor pertanian sangat penting dalam mendukung perekonomian nasional terutama sebagai penghasil komoditas ekspor nonmigas untuk menarik devisa negara. Ekspor non migas terdiri dari sektor pertanian, sektor industri, dan sektor pertambangan. Bagi negara agraris seperti Indonesia, seharusnya sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi yang besar. Namun pada kenyataannya, sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi ekspor paling kecil yaitu 3.75% sedangkan sektor industri berkontribusi sebesar 70.97% dan sektor pertambangan berkontribusi sebesar 12.93% terhadap nilai ekspor non migas secara keseluruhan. Oleh karena itu, di dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan peramalan terhadap nilai ekspor sektor pertanian dengan menggunakan ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik. Variabel yang digunakan adalah nilai ekspor sektor pertanian mulai bulan Januari 2010 – Desember 2015. Hasil statistika deskriptif menunjukkan nilai ekspor dari sektor pertanian cenderung tinggi pada bulan-bulan akhir seperti Juli, Agustus, dan September dan cenderung rendah pada bulan-bulan awal seperti bulan Januari dan Februari. Model terbaik untuk peramalan nilai ekspor non migas dari sektor pertanian adalah ARIMA (0,1,1)(1,0,1)6 dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 1.44 dan MAPE sebesar 5.82%. Hasil ramalan nilai ekspor sektor pertanian yang tertinggi selama tahun 2016 berada pada bulan Agustus yaitu 529.9 juta US$ dan terendah pada bulan Februari yaitu 426.7 juta US$. ===================================================================================================== Indonesia is an agricultural country where the role of the agricultural sector is very important to support the national economy mainly as a producer of non-oil and gas export commodities to gain some foreign exchange. The non-oil and gas exports consist of agricultural sector, industrial sector, and mining sectors. For an agricultural country like Indonesia, it should contribute a lot of non-oil and gas export value. But in fact, the agricultural sector give the most small contributed for nonoil and gas value exports as a whole that is 3.75% while the industrial sector contributed about 70.97% and mining sectors contributed about 12.93%. Therefore, in this study will be research about forecasting of non-oil and gas export value from agricultural sector by using ARIMA Box-Jenkins. The data used are secondary data which is establish from Badan Pusat Statistik. Variable used the non-oil and gas exports value from agricultural sector from January 2010 until December 2015. Results descriptive statistics show that export value from the agricultural sector are likely to be high on the final months like July, August, and September and tend to be low in early months such as January and February. The best model for forecasting the non-oil and gas export value from agricultural sector is ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)6 with RMSE value 1.44 and MAPE value 5.82%. The highest forecast value of agricultural sector export during the year 2016 are in August 2016 that is 529.9 million US $ and the lowest in February 2016 that is 426.7 million US $

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.535 Gab p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA, Ekspor, Peramalan, Sektor Pertanian
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3
Depositing User: Yeni Anita Gonti
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2020 07:14
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2020 07:14
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/75805

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