Purwasih, Silviana Maya (2016) Analisis Persistensi Dan Stabilitas Pada Model Pra-Koalisi Antara Virus H1N1-P Dan H5N1 Dengan Simulasi Numerik. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Virus influenza terus berkembang dan berevolusi menjadi virus-virus
baru, ini berarti setiap orang dapat terinfeksi beberapa kali sepanjang hidupnya.
Virus H1N1-p yang mewabah pada manusia dan H5N1 yang menyerang hewan
dan manusia dapat menyebar melalui kontak langsung dengan individu yang
terinfeksi. Dengan demikian, adanya dinamika mobilitas penduduk yang terjadi
dalam suatu populasi, dapat memperluas daerah penyebaran virus. Perluasan ini,
memungkinkan terjadinya pandemik dari koalisi kedua virus tersebut. Pada tesis
ini, akan dilakukan analisis persistensi dan stabilitas pada model pra-koalisi antara
virus H1N1-p dan H5N1 berdasarkan Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, yang kemudian
disimulasikan dengan menggunakan software Matlab. Dari hasil analisis,
diketahui bahwa pada saat
0 R 1
sistem stabil dan virus influenza bersifat weakly
uniform persistent saat virus H5N1 dalam kondisi tunak, sedangkan pada saat
0 R 1
sistem menjadi tidak stabil dan virus influensa H1N1-p bersifat strongly
uniform persistent.
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Seasonal influenza viruses evolve become new viruses continuously, it’s means
that everybody can get infected multiple times throughout their lives. H1N1-p
virus adapts to humans and the avian flu (H5N1) which attack to both animals and
humans can be spread on air from person-to-person through sneezing, coughing,
or touching contaminated surfaces. With the case, the the dynamic mobility of
individual population can expand the spreading areas. The expansion, perhaps
pandemic will be happen from the coalition between two viruses. On this thesi,
we’ll analysis persistence and stability on pre-coalition models between H1N1-p
and H5N1based on Basic Reproduction Numbers, and then we will simulation it
by Matlab. From the analysis , it is known that when
0 R 1
, the system is stable
and weakly uniformly persistent, whereas when
0 R 1
the system becomes
unstable and the virus is strongly uniform persistent .
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RTMa 511.8 Pur a |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Pra-koalisi, Bilangan reproduksi masal, Stabilitas, Persistensi |
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q180.55.M38 Mathematical models |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Mathematics > 44101-(S2) Master Thesis |
| Depositing User: | ansi aflacha |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Jul 2020 03:01 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Jul 2020 03:01 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/76580 |
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